Well, sitting here catching a partial 11:00pm advisory, I have to admit was fully anticipating a westward motion of the "magical mystery cone"; contrary, it has shifted eastward. Motion now reported to be Northwest at 5mph. I still believe we'll see a westward shift.

Interestingly, I am not seeing the de-coupling of the low level and mid level that I might have anticipated. Moreso, and I realize that I am the "outlier" against popular thought, I believe that Noel will either continue to move between West and WNW, perhaps a short term NW motion, but then back to a slow West, eratic or practically stationary motion. Just now looking at the 0Z NAM, I cannot help but notice a double barrel high - one to Noel's east and one to the west. 36 hour 500mb shows a trough hanging southwest, yet the flow ahead of it is not Southwesterly?! Overall Eastern Conus flow appears zonal, and beyond a weakness swinging out in 36 hr., I believe Noel is gonna hang around a while. Not gonna guess where he's going, but i'll truly be surprised to see the long awaited north turn ( albeit am probably the only one who will be ). Just to take it one step further, should a unanticipated turn to the WSW insue, than I believe that the upper air would be conducive for fair development if remaining just south of W. Cuba. All this would mean S. Fla. to potentially get copious rains, while on the Northern periphery.

Then again......if i'm wrong, it should become obvious within 8 hours.