Scott,

I am not sure what you are talking about with regards to the steering flow at about 28 degree north being "Northeasterly"?! If you look at the 0Z 500mb analysis, you should notice a northward bulging ridge which by chance is practically parked directly over Eastern Cuba. That 500mb Northeast wind barb you are looking at is at "1:00 o'clock" within this bubble high. You are merely noticing the normal periphery wind flow as would be on any northeast quadrant of a round high pressure ridge.

As for the "trough line" you are referring to, unless you are looking at distinctly different maps than I am looking at, I have to believe you are referencing the shear zone as well depicted on satellite. However, you are making corresponding comparisons to this point and Noel's forward motion, which again would be typically steered by 500mb level, much less lower level given the more shallow system that it likely is. I might agree that given a potential westward motion, that given this shear, it is possible that new convection may be limited as Noel might move farther westward, but this is not to say that a low level shallow system should be impacted by whats happening "upstairs". For that matter, 200mb depicts an area about 100 or so miles to the west that in about 24-36 hours would seem to be conducive for development.