F.Y.I. - As of 1:20am, the IR2 ( shortwave ) nicely depicts an approx. 400 mile wide gyre clearly moving westward with the center approaching 80W, and just south of the Cuban coast. Am seeing no associated convection to the west or south, but the huge bulk of convection in Noel's eastern quadrant does seem to be expanding westward. I am however seeing the mid level clouds increasing toward this low level center, and only time will tell if we are seeing the beginning of a de-coupling of the system, or if the northern edge of all the convection over the Bahamas is about to warm significantly and drop off, meanwhile newer convection perhaps attempting to reform close to ( or at least moving west in tandem with ) Noel.
Can't wait to see tomm. vis. pictures. Hmmm, wonder if NHC will be calling Noel's motion at 12Z "northward" or "northeastward" (LOL).
|