I hate to do this, as both of you have presented a great deal of information backing your thoughts and theories.

But... it's the end of round One.
Break time for those of us reading the posts.

I'm a might bit rusty due to the slow season at hand. But it appears that a shortwave has now cleared a Cameron,LA to Brownsville,Tx line. Using the water vapor loop here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

However, if this is the shortwave that is forecast to 'pick up' Noel. I noticed in the last few frames that the southward extension or amplification has ceased at this time. Nearly on the same latitude as Brownsville,Tx. Moving due east would put in near a Naples to Miami line in about 12-18 hours. Close enough to Noel to possibly lift the storm out into the Atlantic.

Also note on the GOM WV loop. Bottom right hand corner is the western edge of Noel's cloud signature. Something... is flattening the western side of the cloud envelope. Very little arc to it at this time.