cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Oct 31 2007 12:10 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations

I suspect that LLC is a little too large and spinning around a little too rapidly and coming from just the too perfect starting point to not be "the real deal." Now doesn't this development toss a whole new wrench in the mix. The 11AM forecast is possibly bust, not within one hour after issuance. Should this be the case, now one of two things have to happen to make the 11 happen: A) A -brand new- LLC needs to form within a new powerful convective burst (which doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon, as pressures are now rising per latest recon data and all-too-obvious cloud top warming is underway) or B) The "real deal" LLC and the MLC and its associated now waning deep convection have to meet back up and go through the whole re-coupling process all over again. Either way, it is not nearly as probable that both the 11AM's intensity and track verify as a result.


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