Fawning over models and defending their value in forecasting Noel's track aside for the moment, the facts on the ground are entirely challenging the NHC forecasters, giving them quite the run for the money, one can be sure. After defying the forecast of a continued NNW track so far today, and clearly running WSW, Noel has taken up nearly stationary right along the coast again (Close-up of GOES visible from NRL) . If Noel were to start heading WSW again he will be back over Cuba, once again. In fact, if his mean movement takes up any direction other than a solid NW through E course, he will be back over Cuba. A trip back over Cuba changes everything with regard to the 11AM forecast put out by NHC, not just a little bit of everything.

That paragraph being my segue into getting back to the models. I actually think the very large cyclonic envelope that has grown up around Noel to be illuminating, and something that perhaps lends a good deal more support to the outlier NAM. For several runs now, NAM has held back the bulk of Noel's abundant vorticity this side of 23N, in one fashion or another. NAM has generally taken the large and expansive cyclonic flow that is apparent with Noel, and used that, along with a not nearly as impressive shortwave approach and Noel's anticyclone aloft, to soften the blow and reduce the tugs of the approaching trough. And you know, if you look at the loops today, you really can make a case for this.

Whether or not Tropical Storm Watches and/or Warnings go up for the Keys and/or coastal south Florida, while a matter or politics and economics, is also really a matter of semantics when it comes down to a number of the effects this area continues to feel, and will likely feel, for some more time to come. A High Wind Watch, if reissued, is nothing to scoff at. Sustained winds of up to "only" 40MPH and/or gusts aoa 58, if verified, will definitely rearrange ones view.