cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Dec 09 2007 08:41 PM
Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean

Cyclonic flow continues looking healthiest a good bit above the surface, but today's persistent blowup of somewhat deeper convection seems to be doing a fair job bringing things ever closer to the surface.

NRL has 94L up at 35 knots, but judging from available scatterometer images, it seems as though these gale-force winds are generally confined to a relatively small arc located north and well-away from the center - perhaps also within a few stronger individual storms, arguably making 94L still far more subtropical, at best. (LINK)

It seems reasonable to conclude that 94L will attempt to consolidate some more about its humble llc, and actually lose that patch of 35 knot winds, at least initially. I would like to see if it develops some deeper central convection during the overnight tonight as it travels over waters that are progressively a little more and more supportive, and brings the radius of maximum winds in a bit more.



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