Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Dec 11 2007 01:32 AM
Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean

Notice that most of all the 00Z this evening have shifted back to the north after the 3 day plots... I'm using a GE product and looks like a general westward movement for the next couple of days... agree with clark that the window appears to be getting smaller with time on this system... although... there is a nice blow-up of convection still on going this evening... should be ineresting to see if it holds and what NHC thinking is... i would expect based on how things went this year... a wait and see... then maybe in the morning a classification... then again... what are the short term effects.... the islands that are in the path... mudslides... so i'm sure if they expect based on what the models show coming up... they may air on the side of caution.... didn't one of this islands have flooding problems this year and lose a lot of lives? I'm curious with some of the models over the us GFS/ECMWF... seems there having a time with this weekend setup, especially over the central and southeast US, if this system that is causing the models to jump around?? I know the jet stream looks to dive across the country... but where will 94L be by saturday/Sunday? NW Carribean?

Food for thought:
0330 PM EST MON 10 DEC 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-010 AMENDMENT

NOTE: (ADDED) TROPICAL CYCLONE REQUIREMENTS...A RESOURCES
PERMITTING LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO A SUSPECT AREA NEAR
HISPANIOLA:
FLIGHT ONE--TEAL 70
A. 11/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 11/1530Z
D. 18.5N 68.0W
E. 11/1500Z TO 11/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
SEF



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