cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Dec 10 2007 10:16 PM
Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean

The Subtropical vs. Tropical call with Olga is divining a very thin line. Although some of Olga's deepest convection is now over the surface circulation, a good bit of the strongest sustained winds and yet more deep convection remains removed from the center (at least as of earlier tonight, best NHC can likely tell at this point). Other likely factors in calling Olga subtropical - 1) The convection is still not all that deep, and thus more typical of late season hybrids than "tropical" cyclones 2) As seen on
radar , the potent mid-level circulation is probably still a bit removed from the primary surface circulation, for now - even appears at times as if it will attempt to stage a total coup, as well it should, once they link up, one way or another 3) The feature is still arguably somewhat tied up with the associated ULL, at least to the point of it being a lopsided tropical cyclone, for all practical purposes. It's a hybrid, but clearly very close to legitimately more "tropical," than not.



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