Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Dec 13 2007 01:58 AM
Re: Olga loops and recurves?

Been kinda tough to navigate here the past couple of days -- think there were some server issues that have since been fixed -- but alas, no biggie.

Olga looks like it'll have some of its moisture entrained into a coastal nor'easter expected to develop this weekend, but it looks somewhat unlikely that the storm itself will be entirely entrained into the coastal low. Shear is on the upswing and the environment is fairly subsident in nature ahead of it, neither of which really support persistent convective development. With the NHC's comments at 10a and 4p to that regard, that'd spell the end of Olga as a classified system; from a more practical standpoint, it'd eventually spell the end of a closed circulation.

I think we'll see the storm's circulation hold on for another day or two, intermittently developing convection (particularly just to the east and northeast of the center in a more favorable environment for it), before starting to dissipate as it slows down near the Yucatan Channel. From there, it will likely sit, awaiting the developing coastal system on Saturday. Not an overly high chance it maintains itself as a classified entity and manages to get picked up entirely by the coming system, IMO.



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