cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Dec 15 2007 03:00 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola

Olga has held together extremely well, given the environment and track over some pretty high mountains. Several scatterometer passes still reveal a very well-developed surface circulation. Area buoy and ship reports suggest that her pressure is still down around 1006mb.. and that might even be conservative.

The air about Olga is a little less dry now, and shear perhaps a touch less hostile. Getting picked up by the approaching mid-latitude system now triggering lines of strong thunderstorms in east Texas looks plausible. Should Olga hook a hard right and go with the flow, net effective shear may be a little less than what is dogging her now. Furthermore, she would have a brief stint over waters marginally favorable for some more convective flares.

If Olga puts together a few solid hours of deep convection about her center, I can see a situation where advisories are restarted for Tropical Storm Olga. Winds associated with her "remnant" circulation are already blowing up to 40+ knots tonight.

Some nearby ship reports:
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD (KTS)
SHIP S 0700 22.30 -85.70 130 34 100 35.0
SHIP S 0600 20.20 -84.70 131 98 160 25.1
SHIP S 0200 21.30 -86.40 59 35 360 42.7

This is not any kind of ringing endorsement for regeneration, however. Any reconstituting of Olga is likely to be contained by generally poor conditions: the lower SSTs & moderate to high wind shear, being at the top of that list, methinks. Maybe 1 in 3 odds of pulling off a last-ditch surprise, given her tenacity. December tropical cyclones, you know...



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