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Northwest of what? I assume that you mean the system in the east central Atlantic. From the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion: "A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS STUCK OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING SW FROM A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 26N38W TO JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR 26N38W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S THEN SW TO NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A ROPE CLOUD DEFINES THIS TROUGH ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC SHOWED VERY CLEAR THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE LOW CENTER AND WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 24N." The system is still very much a cold core low, and SSTs in the area are around 22 to 23C. It has been moving more east than south in the past day or so. If it were to get nudged quite a bit to the south it might stand a chance to transition - but the likelyhood seems very slim at this time. ED |