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SSD is now tracking the cutoff low we've been discussing recently: ( Invest "90L" - should actually have been 95L, but they fixed it later) 28/2345 UTC 25.9N 38.2W ST1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean NRL will probably have it up soon enough. 7PM TWD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... OF INTEREST IS THE DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N38W. THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. QUIKSCAT WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION IN THE OBSERVED WINDS. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTAL STRUCTURE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A WEAK TRAILING TROUGH. THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSES INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE BECOMING A HYBRID SYSTEM...BUT UNTIL MORE SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERED AN OCCLUDED LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK AS THE UPPER PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS LOW-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE MOVING OFF SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/290006.shtml? |