cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Dec 28 2007 08:39 PM
Re: Olga Remnants Approaching Florida

SSD is now tracking the cutoff low we've been discussing recently: ( Invest "90L" - should actually have been 95L, but they fixed it later)

28/2345 UTC 25.9N 38.2W ST1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


NRL will probably have it up soon enough.

7PM TWD

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OF INTEREST IS THE DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N38W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. QUIKSCAT WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN
CONTAMINATION IN THE OBSERVED WINDS. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTAL
STRUCTURE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A WEAK TRAILING TROUGH. THE FSU
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSES INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE
BECOMING A HYBRID SYSTEM...BUT UNTIL MORE SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERED AN
OCCLUDED LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK
AS THE UPPER PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS LOW-MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT MAY ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE STRONG
UPPER WESTERLIES IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE MOVING OFF SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/290006.shtml?