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From the latest TWD: ...SPECIAL FEATURE... INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS THE DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 27N38W. THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN A COUPLE OF BANDS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. QUIKSCAT WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THAT SEEMS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE MOST COMMON TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW WITH CIRCULATION EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE...AS IN THIS CASE. ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS...VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THIS LOW-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OR SO. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCES MOVE THIS SYSTEM TO THE SW ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME. |