MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu May 15 2008 09:18 AM |
First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
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Update - Thursday- 05/29, 9:45AM
Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 1-E has been named as Tropical Storm Alma.
Update - Thursday- 05/29, 7:45AM
The first Tropical Depression of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season has formed, it is forecast to become a tropical storm (Alma) before making landfall in western Nicaragua. Flhurricane is primarily an Atlantic Basin Site, please the National Hurricane Center for more information on Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 1-E.
Update - Friday - 05/23, Noon (EDST)
As the 'official' start of the season approaches, the basin remains on the quiet side. Easterly waves have started their development over tropical Africa and fall apart as they exit into the still cool waters of the eastern tropical Atlantic. The ITCZ remains at low latitude (about 3N to 5N) and a strong shear zone exists in the central subtropical and tropical northern Atlantic between two upper level ridges.
The GFS model continues to suggest long term development in the far western Caribbean Sea east of Belize and north of Honduras - but nothing really there at the moment. Its just an interesting area at his time of year to keep a casual eye on. See the excellent post below by dem05 for more on this.
ED
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Now that the East Pacific Hurricane Season is underway, we gear up for the Atlantic June 1st. With that the NOAA has released today their 2008 Atlantic Basin tropical climate assessment.
Near Normal or Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season and explanation can be found here.
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May 15th, today, is the first day of the East Pacific Hurricane Season. It predates the Atlantic one by 15 days. The Atlantic Hurricane season will begin on June 1st.
There is nothing worth note in the Eastern Pacific right now, however. This site rarely talks about East Pacfiic systems (or other basins) but instead focuses on the Atlantic systems.
That said it wouldn't be possible to mention Tropical Cyclone Nargis that made landfall in Myanmar on May 4th/5th, a borderline category 3/4 storm when it hit, it killed 10s of thousands, mostly due to lack of warning. (In the local newspaper there there was a minor mention of it two days before, with "50 MPH" winds and a lot of rain as the only thing mentioned) A catastrophic political communications failure greatly contributed to the deaths there.
A discussion on the system can be found here.
Back home, last years retired names round up is: Dean, a Category 5 that made landfall in the Yucatan. Felix, yet another category 5 that made landfall in northern Honduras (First time recorded that two category 5 systems made landfall as category 5's in one year), and Noel, which ran up the east coast and up to Nova Scotia. It made category 1 hurricane strength in the Northwestern Bahamas. It's impact on deaths in Haiti (around 150) and other parts of the Caribbean contributed (Map of Dean, Felix and Noel)
We'll be ready for the coming season with more news updates and commentary as we watch the Atlantic Basin. I expect another somewhat active year.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Fri May 23 2008 05:06 AM |
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Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
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Greetings Everyone,
As we close in on a brand new Hurricane Season, I wanted to say hello and that I hope everyone enjoys participating in the forum that these moderators have established for us. Hopefully, this will be a season where each of us experience no problems from storms. However, I also hope everyone is prepared just in case.
If you have been bouncing around on many of the weather resources the internet has provided us...you may be noticing some active discussion about the GFS model in the 5+ day timeframe regarding some pre-season tropical development. While it is true that the model consistently wants to pop something up in 5+ days in the SW Caribbean, this mentioned weather may or may not evolve and it's not a bad time to keep some other thoughts in check as the season approcahes. 1.) Models provide guidance. 2.) For established tropical weather, anything within 1-5 days has model guidance error and any guidance beyond 5 days is "crystal ball" meteorology with large element of risk and error. 3.) For un-established tropical weather, and/or "phantom systems" (i.e. systems that have not appeared or show no trigger for appearing), the faith in model development should be very low.
As for right now, the area is relatively favorable as small ridge perks along overhead. Yet nothing is present for development. Mean time, westerlies from the Pacific and Easterlies through the Caribbean could pop something up anywhere along the mean region of convergence with time...it just depends on where that convergence is. Not predictable, so who knows, we may be talking about one of three things. 1.) a potential Pacific system 2.) a possible Carrib system 3.) Niether Pacific nor Caribbean storm, yet tropical flooding rains in Cental America if these conditions persist. Until something does pop up...it's just impossible to know where or if this happens right now.
Good luck this season,
Tom
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri May 23 2008 07:00 AM |
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Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
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Well said.. I feel alot have been watching the models over the past few days on this, but really dont feel like posting yet cause its more than 4-5days out from becoming anything if anything. We may have a idea by Sunday even though models are hinting at a Tuesday-Weds timeframe (if any). Then if we do its still too far out to know where it will go. We have really 2-3 days before speculating on development for 1.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri May 23 2008 09:42 PM |
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Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
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That is a great post.. all in all, all this model stuff is just telling us that Hurricane Season is getting closer, I will watch that area for "possible" development, it's not too much out of the woods. I see a very bad season this year, so everyone should be prepared. Doesn't matter how much storms we get, as Adrian (Hurricane29)says "It only takes ONE to make it a devestating season
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 23 2008 11:23 PM |
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Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
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Hello again everyone, Just like to chime in here with some general observations. Pattern has changed noticeably here, as my fellow Florida posters will agree. Heat and humidity are in full swing and after weeks of nothing but trace amounts of rainfall. Instability has returned with some serious afternoon thunderstorms. Could be a sign of our high pressure setting up camp further east for the summer. Analog years indicate dry mays produce more active years.
'Plotting 75 years worth of May rainfall data, Lushine found the probability of a hurricane striking South Florida almost tripled after a very dry May. Conversely, the chances of a hurricane striking South Florida after a wet May were three times less.'
I'm sure this article from 2005 has been linked in the past but it is interesting -
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2005/04/28/54367.htm?print=1
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat May 24 2008 06:40 PM |
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Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
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As Ed pointed out, there have been some recent grumblings in the ECMWF, GFS and CMC global numerical forecast models. HPC has picked up on this and felt it warranted a mention in their middle-extended range forecast discussion:
TROPICS
GFS SERIES HAVE BEEN INDICATING WRN CARRIBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
FOR OVER A WEEK AT LONGER RANGES INDICATING INCREASING FAVORABLE
CONDS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. LATEST OVERNIGHT RUNS AND TODAYS
12Z RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE LOCATIONAL CLUSTERING CONT THIS TREND. 00Z ECMWF
ALSO DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE IN THIS AREA BUT NOT TO THE DEVELOPED
EXTENT OF THE GFS. CMC ALSO LIKES THIS GENERAL REGION BUT PLACES
ITS EMPHASIS ON THE PAC SIDE. AFTN FINAL PROGS WILL DEPICT A GFS
ENS MEAN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST DAYS 5-7
THU-SAT.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN
I have found that the experimental Roundy cyclone probabilities product found here can be quite useful in determining at least favorable regions for development at extended leads. Currently, the product indicates that unfortunately for Berma, that region of the west and northwest Indian coast is dramatically coming into a favorable regime. The product also indicates that regions of the eastern Pacific are in a burgeoning region of potential development, too. Although this is not extended into the Caribbean, it is however close enough to the region, that combined with these operational global model signals, raises an eyebrow or two - particularly considering that nearing and going into June is also climatologically favored in this area and up throughout the Gulf.
...So, this is something to at least keep an eye on in future model runs.
John
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun May 25 2008 03:53 PM |
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Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
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Great post by tom and others above.... taking a look at the globals this morning.... its still holding onto trying to develop something in the western caribbean... this may be the start of a long season.... WE HAVE PLENTY of time to watch.... and see how the long range models work. I see a few models try to take an area from the epac... over central america into the caribbean.... think i see this once or twice before at the start of the seaon... (a couple of years ago?)
GFS 06
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon May 26 2008 05:09 AM |
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this weeks tropics
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Well i've taken a look at the globals tonight... looks like next weekend/into next week... there could be some type of tropical system to talk about... ranging from the western caribbean to the central GOM. From a weak TD to a strong TS.....Upper level patten forecast shows a favorable area from GOM to western carb.... (but this is really to far out to know...) high pressure out in the atlantic could be far enough to the east that with any passing trough over the lower 48, this area could get pulled northward. a few gulf coast WFO's now have a mention of this in there long range for next weekend. I not all that too excitied yet... SST's are not really all that impressive... loop current is just starting to warm.... but its something to monitor and watch, while all focus this week with be on central america/epac/western caribbean area... and see what happens and or forms.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 26 2008 05:54 AM |
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Re: this weeks tropics
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I think alot is going to be determined on where exactly the low pressure forms. 100 miles east or west of a model run might make a difference in the longer term. If the system develops alittle more east where the 0z Nogaps has it.. then it could be a florida or eastern gulf threat. If it hugs close to the Yucitan..it may feel the developing ridge next week over Tx-La and push it westwards. Wayyy to early to tell until we get something to forecast.
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon May 26 2008 05:01 PM |
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Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
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The TPC is mentioning the low pressure system in the offshore water forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea now.
Gulf of Mexico Synopsis: "DISORGANIZED LOW PRES ORGANIZING NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NW FRI AND SAT."
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon May 26 2008 05:40 PM |
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this week
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Well models still show all kind of solutions to what could happen... some stay on the epac side, while a few keep bringing a tropical system into the southern GOM. Personally i'm starting to think its all goin to depend on how far the ridge builds back to the west from off the atlantic side come fri-sun.
**side note... see long range GFS now tries to bring off a low from the cape and move it wnw into the atlantic***
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 26 2008 06:45 PM |
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Re: this week
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anything that comes off africa this time of year will fizzle out in the 72-75f dg water temps. Its nice to see the waves coming off with weak low pressures though.
In regards with the possible development in the carribean..I dont think we can put any stock yet in anything until a low does form...otherwise the models will jump around.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 27 2008 03:34 PM |
Re: this week
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Is this area near Jamaica? Or is it further north? Hubby and I are going there on June 14th for 9 days. Not too worried about it yet, just want to get a better idea of where exactly they are looking. Thx!
Colleen
| cchsweatherman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue May 27 2008 06:51 PM |
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Invest 90E
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Just a few minutes ago, the disturbed weather and associated surface low were classified as Invest 90E according to Wunderground.com. Still awaiting the NAVY and NHC confirmation. This could be the beginning of what the models have been predicting for days now.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 27 2008 08:26 PM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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Yes- but it is located in the eastern paciifc; early tracking has it veering away from land. And it does look nice on satelllite.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 28 2008 01:26 AM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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Well... like i posted a couple days ago.... i think the tropical wave that was over south american coast line moving west toward panama... its goin to be our little push that the broad area of low pressure in the SW Carb. needs to get going... with upper level winds becoming more favorable... this will giver it a better chance... i do think that the surface ridge will erode some to the NE and give this showers and storms a chance to become a better low... before building back to the west.
Although i do think 90E has a real good chance of becoming a TD in the next 12-24 hrs... movement slow and northerly... this will play a role on our atlantic side showers and storms
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed May 28 2008 03:03 AM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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That transitional time of year, which happens every year around the begining of Hurricane Season is definately upon us. Lots of various weather patterns involving the late weather of spring and the early weather of summer are definately ongoing. In sum, that means that the overall weather picture is not very straightforward. I give kudos to the GFS for consistently picking up on the development of a monsoon trough for days now (an area of disturbed weather and lower pressures across the SW Caribbean and Eastern Pacific) . It is not typical to see that long range consistancy, and certainly not typical to see a phantom like weather pattern to evolve on queue in the tropics. This may be a fluke, or the annual adjustments in the GFS are paying off....Time will tell, but it is encourqaging to see that the GFS picked up on the genesis of the monsoon trough (albiet the final outcome of that trough has been all over the map).
Overall, what we do see right now is a monsoon trough across the eastern Pacific and the Southwest Caribbean. With a broad gyre of converging winds surrounding this region. Embedded are no "closed" lows, but several areas of minimum low pressure such as 90E. This trough is not that untypical for this time of year. However, it usually is aligned from east to west from the E. Pac into South America. When this trough is lifted northward into the SW Caribbean, that area is not a bad spot to watch, but it is not a guaranteed area development either. Likewise, until the area becomes more consolidated, development cannot really be predicted with any accuracy in the E. Pac or the Caribb.
However, I like Storm 7's comments on wave activity traversing South America. I can see where he is coming from and he may be on to something here. Likewise, the Pacific activity along the trough seems to be riding in a more of a Northeasterly fashion toward Panama and maybe the SW Caribbean. In conclusion, these types of activity may lead to a "pilling up" of weather, which may lead to a focused area for development along the trough. Mother Nature will say who's boss, but the SW Caribbean probably has a slightly better shot of being an area for consolidation of this Monsoon trough based on the current. However, 100 or 200 miles of error means a big difference (No Development due to Central America or an E. Pac. development). Bottom line, something may still perk in the SW. Caribbean in the coming days, nothing may happen due to land interaction with central america, or at lower odds...something may pop up on the Pacific side. One possibility that I do dismiss under this weather pattern is the possibility of a storm on both sides of Central America. Real estate plus the dynamics should prohibit that.
On the lighter side...I believe most posters here will agree...My only "wishcast" for the summer...Please let it rain in Florida! :-)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 28 2008 04:02 AM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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Latest Update... 30 minutes ago. It doesn't look good, to me, at this point in time.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 7WW HAS BEEN MOVING W AN AN ESTIMATED 12
KT AND THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE INTO THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT.
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND THE E PAC ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA...THE OVERALL
PATTERN SEEMS TO SUGGEST SLIGHT ORGANIZATION CENTERED ON ROUGHLY
09N89W. THIS IS WHERE OUR MARINE PRODUCTS HAVE SUGGESTED A
SURFACE LOW...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WOULD DEVELOP. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND PERHAPS DRIFT
NE LATER THIS WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED BUT THEREAFTER SEVERAL CHANGES ARE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
OR CUT OFF FROM AN UPPER TROUGH...AND DRIFT S FRI WHILE AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REPLACING THE UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY DISSECTING THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WOULD ALLOW A
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER GULF OF
HONDURAS. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE NW
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE
MAY ADD THE NEEDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY TO GET ALL OF THIS
SPINNING. NOTE THAT THE GRADIENT S OF THE E PAC LOW PRESSURE IS
ALREADY SUPPORTING A SW TO W 20 TO 25 KT WIND AND SEAS TO ABOUT
11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE LOW
THROUGH 48 HOURS.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 28 2008 07:19 AM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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90E is looking better and better overnight tonight. Continued consolidation of convection is coalescing around a markedly improved coc, which is now clearly located IVO 9N 88W, drifting ever so gently E or ENE the past day or so.
If this feature was not still so wrapped up in the ITCZ, one might be tempted to say that it would earn TD sometime this morning. Still might. But, I tend to think that it needs to snap free of the parent trof and spin up a little bit more, first, and this may take a good deal longer than another 6-12 hours.
As of this entry (2AM CDT) NRL has yet to hoist a TCFA. I usually notice that most invests of this kind are given to TCFA's at least a half a day before they earn the right to be numbered depressions. And this is a fairly strait forward, garden variety monsoon trof to tropical cyclogenesis scenario.
What might be interesting to watch is if 90E develops and washes out over central America before having much of a chance to interfere with the prospects of a sister system attempting to get going over out in the Caribbean or BOC. Certainly a few models have even hinted that 90E devolves once over Central America back into a lower pressure center within the much larger, broad area of low pressure, and then reemerges once in the Caribbean or even southwest BOC to attempt to birth an Atlantic tropical cyclone anew.
The mere prospect of a classic tropical cyclone forming just either side of central America before even the official start to the 08 season strikes me as noteworthy.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 28 2008 01:16 PM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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Nice cyclonic view from the sat thus far- SW carribean looking pretty good for a potential developing system.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 28 2008 03:37 PM |
Re: Invest 90E
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I'm not sure if it means anything, but a couple of the local weather stations are alluding to the disturbance in the Caribbean as something to watch in the coming days. If anything, hopefully it will bring us some rain since we are in need of some. Also, I'm hopeful that it will just be a disturbance and not an early, strong system that wants to start off the season with an ominous tone.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 28 2008 06:24 PM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SURFACE LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TRPCL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS
...AT 10N88W 1006 MB GETTING MORE LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WHILE
SLOWLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. LITTLE MOVEMENT AT THIS
TIME BUT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE AS SECOND LOW PRES OVER
SW CARIBBEAN INTERACTS WITH IT. ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION
AFFECTS S NICARAGUA AND MOST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING
WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST TRPCL AIR MASS INFLUX FROM THE SW.
WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AND GUSTY WITHIN 150 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF MEXICO TO PANAMA WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS.
INTERACTION BETWEEN BOTH LOW PRES CENTERS ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO
DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AND THEIR TRACKS...BUT PROXIMITY TO LAND
AREAS COULD CURTAIL SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER ONE FOR
THE TIME BEING. COMPOUNDING THE SCENARIO IS TRPCL WAVE ALONG
80W DISCUSSED BELOW WHICH IS LIKELY BOOST THE PROBABILITY OF
INTENSIFICATION AS MUCH AS TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FORECAST
Just what i was thinking and have been posting about... the question to me... i not sure where this second low will form on the caribbean side.... although it will dift and move to the NW... along the central american coast line. I have more tonight when i get a good look at today's data.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 28 2008 06:45 PM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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The whole area is a mess in the carribean. A upper trough of low pressure that came down a couple days ago pulled up the itcz as a elongated trough from the EPAC to the WCAR.. on the sw side of the trough (in better upper air support from the trough hanging down over central america) a low pressure system formed and is been migrating underneath the trough. The trough though is now weakening and pulling out as a ridge builds in from the eastern carribean. The low pressure system over the EPAC near 10N and 86W will get pulled NNE and into central america. Another weaker low is situated off the east coast of Nicaragua near 12N and 81W. This low dont have the upper level enviroment due to the EPAC low proximaty. With the EPAC low moving inland on Thurs.. the weaker low off Nicaragua should get pulled into Honduars or Belieze by Friday. Now with that said a tropical wave of low pressure may develop near Jamaica as upper level winds calm down as 1 the upper trough is now out of the way and the EPAC low is now a trough over central america. This wave will have a chance to develop and move WNW towards the Yucitan and S Gulf.. There is nothing really to pull anything in the near term north to florida or anywhere in the gulf right now ...and besides anything after 3 days has a growing amount of error.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed May 28 2008 09:43 PM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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Not much to add here so far...Looks like everyone's posts today have covered everything pretty good.
One note that I will make, is that unless 90L does a quick U-turn, this is a system that has likely missed it's opportunity to become a tropical depression in the Pacific. Latest RAMSDIS Loops do indicate that 90L's primary center of circulation has crossed the coastline of Coasta Rica now. We shall have to see if this get's hung up on land, traverses Cantral America into the SW Caribbean, or becomes a "jumper" (Re-forms a new Low in the Caribbean)...As advertised, only time will tell. Either way, a very unfortunate flooding situation in Central America is evolving.
RAMSDIS Link to Visable Floater: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp#1-km%20Visible%20and%20Radar (NOTE: Click the link for 1km Visible and Radar)
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 28 2008 11:48 PM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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IMHO, at 2244UTC, for all practical intents and purposes Invest 90E, the first eastern Pacific Invest of the 2008 Pacific Hurricane Season, is quite arguably already a tropical depression, whether they give it the bump prior to or perhaps even post landfall, or not.
With the help from this SSMI composite color-enhanced image, you can see how the primary llc center was still situated just offshore late this afternoon, IVO 10N 86.5W. Deep convective banding W, SW, S, SE, E & NE. Nice cyclone.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 29 2008 12:09 AM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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I was browsing the NHC, and I decided to take another look at 90E on satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/vis.jpg
I dont know about you guys, but it looks pretty well organized to me, and you could see the rotation centre very clearly now. Its moving so slow, and in the mountainous areas of Central America....I fear the worst
(prone to landslides etc.)
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Thu May 29 2008 12:29 AM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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The center of 90E has slid back off shore of Costa Rica and into the Pacific Waters again. However, it is unlikely that the system will have enough time to develop into more than a tropical depression. Mort has posted a nice image. However, there are some optical illusions in his image and the potential surface center is likely much closer to the cost. Based on the the shortwave images and the RAMSDIS images, any potential surface circulation is probably around 10.0-10.5N and 86W. The system has moved somewhat to the NNW over the last few hours, which has definately given another chance at life as a tropical depression over the east Pacific. Time will tell if that trend continues. Either way, the tropics definately remain interesting in the East Pacific and SW Caribbean.
Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-ir2.html
EDIT: Almost forgot for the new visitors/new weather hobbiest, you may click on the LatLon radio button on top of this image to get a view of the coordinate grids
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 29 2008 12:54 AM |
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Re: Invest 90E
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I might disagree some with my good friend Dem, in that if there is much of an optical illusion, it appears to me that this is mostly the result of the cyclone's llc center jumping around some, with the mlc a touch displaced. The very last frame suggests that the cyclone has skirted the coast with a northbound bias, and is now winding up even more.
Strong banding now enveloping the entire center. Latest AVN-enhanced image really illustrates this case.
Real-time
. Wish we had recon in and out of there.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 29 2008 01:24 AM |
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TD 01E
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Enter the 2008 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.
Not a lot of room between our newly-upgraded TD and the coast, but there is probably enough time at the rate it is improving to TS within the next 12 hours... especially if it continues to move along just offshore.
The potential for flooding rain is very high.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 29 2008 01:50 AM |
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Re: TD 01E
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One-E certainly has had an interesting day, and I began to wonder if it would survive offshore long enough for NHC to pull the trigger, particularly after reading the TWO that NHC issued an hour before they apparently did pull the triggger. The big question in my mind is what happens with what will become the remnant moisture. Does it get pulled into a low in the W. Caribbean, or does it fall apart over the high mountains? Common sense would say it falls apart quickly over land, but common sense does not always rule the day when it comes to tropical systems.
It's going to be a very long six months, folks.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Thu May 29 2008 01:51 AM |
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Re: TD 01E
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Not a bad call there what so ever, Mort. He is correct, it looks like the first TD of the East Pac Season is underway. Looks like that NNW change in heading did spirt some new life. If that heading reamins, TD 1 would likely head toward the central Nicaraguan Coast. It's a bad floodmaking machine for Central America and it's definately another kink in the chain, as those suspecting Caribbean development can be rest assured that development in the SW Caribbean can not share similar real estate with TD1. Likewise, TD 1 cannot be considered a candidate for making it to the Gulf or the Carribean either. This may greatly reduce the threat of a Caribbean storm for now. Later, remenant moisture from TD 1plus the wave that storm 7 mentioned yesterday may be something to watch in the western Caribean. To early to know for certain, but the weather remains somewhat complex, as does the model solutions...Stay tuned and happy tracking.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Thu May 29 2008 02:06 AM |
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Re: TD 01E
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On a side note and in addition...the 18Z model of the GFS shows that TD 1 may never actually affect central america (landfall wise). Instread it may shunt off to the NW then W. Later, something else may possibly get going in the western Caribbean. Looks like the GFS has been trying to make the simplist solution for a complex weather picture in the medium to longer ranges. No true assurances that the next system will develop in the western Caribbean in 4-5 days either.
Link: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_pcp_l_loop.shtml
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu May 29 2008 02:16 AM |
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Re: TD 01E
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nhc finally called it. the system is unusually far east in the eastpac and at a low latitude... there are actually some 'atlantic' systems in the track record that have their origins in the same general location, i.e. 1949 and 1965, others.
at the rate this thing is improving, and also due to the fact that it is parallelling the coast.. reckon this will be tropical storm alma tomorrow morning. i know, alma. the eastpac wasn't the most advisable place to use that name, as it could conceivably be a storm affecting central america like the one in 1966 did.
my prog on this thing is that it stays fairly weak.. but it won't have to get very strong to cause a lot of problems. i'd expect that the collection of model solutions that slowly veer it around in a counterclockwise way are right, and that it goes in later tomorrow near the confluence of nicaragua/honduras and el salvador as a weak tropical storm, short of any off-the-wall intensification. proximity to land should keep that in check (though it's no guarantee). even if it does... though the deep layer steering from the strengthening ridge to the north should push it westward... it might just keep wobbling around in the locally weak steering flow and move onshore anyway. all of the disturbed weather to the east, and the asymmetry of the wind field ought to aid that.
future track is very iffy. most of the models take it around in a gyre inland over central america. mountainous terrain, so the chances that it will dissipate over the weekend are significant. on the other hand, it might try to redevelop offshore north of honduras. there is a chance it will show up in the atlantic basin and all, but that should probably be brief.
gfs is still trying to develop something in the northwestern caribbean even after it gets rid of our current system. after it progged this guy to show up from two weeks out (albeit on the wrong side of central america), i would put a tad of stock in it. gfs sees the pattern, wants to take something up towards florida during the first week of june. highly fluid situation, too early to tell how it will unfold on our side of the continent.
HF 0316z29may
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu May 29 2008 03:30 AM |
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Re: TD 01E
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A bit of disagreement between the statistical/dynamical models and the global ensembles with TD 1-E, with the former insistent on a track northward into Central America and the latter insistent on a turn westward before reaching land. Given the coarse resolution and depiction of the storm in the ensembles, I'm more inclined to trust the other guidance. Don't get me wrong, the conditions for this to eventually turn west are there with a strong heat ridge over the south-central US and Mexico, but I'm not sold that this thing won't end up inland and dissipated before that occurs.
And, for those interested, my model page is running four times per day with all of the latest guidance. Once we get into Atlantic season and have storms in this basin, they'll be up on the main page too.
Regardless of the track, as HF alluded to, the conditions which led to this development aren't going away in the near future. The Roundy OLR-based scheme implies favorable genesis conditions will slide somewhat west into the E. Pacific, while the GFS suggests they will remain in about the same location. Equal odds on either for now.
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danielw
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| Thu May 29 2008 04:01 AM |
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Re: TD 01E
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Looks like TD 1E is going to be around a while. In one shape or the other. I just looked at the 18Z 850mb Vorticity loop. The system or vortice remnant is forecast to move near or over the FL Penininsula arounf June 6th. Moving from SW to NE exit near Jacksonville and then cross land again near Savannah,Ga / Charleston,S.C.
From there it meaders over to Northern AL, MS and LA before a passing front pushes it south to the GOM near Terrebone Bay,LA on June13th.
Keep in mind this is a forecast (scenario) that is nearing 12 hours old and the system wasn't a tropical disturbance at the time of the data run.
It is interesting that Most of the locations the Vortice remnants were forecast to pass over are the drought stricken area of the above mentioned states. Well, most of them.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/85v_su_loop.shtml
edit: This is the 2008 News Talkback Forum and we are discussiong an Eastern Pacific system due to the persistant Model runs that bring the system northward over the next 10-14 days. Possibly (probably) into the Gulf of Mexico- GOM next week. ~danielw
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Thu May 29 2008 04:03 AM |
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Re: TD 01E
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As Clark also reminds us, somewhat similar conditions will remain in the Eastern Pacific and/or Central America for some time being. One additional evolution I will be watching is how this Eastern Pacific Depression injects heat and moisture into the atmosphere. It's unquastionable that as this monsoon trough, which has morphed from into a Tropical Depression, has provided a vast expansion of moisture into the sw and western Caribbean. Likewise, the heat expelled from the affiliated trough, now newly evolving tropical depression has pumped up the ridge into the Caribbean. Prior to this deveolpment, the area was highly unfavorable and loaded with westerlies, now the area is moving into neutral ground (although not totally ideal). If TD 1 does go inland and dissipates, the moisture and the influance may be a development enhancer for any kind of kick that comes along in the Caribbean...Particularly if a cutoff low does evolve in the western GoMex. Once again, to many questions...to few reliable answers to provide based on the complexities. More to know in 48 or so hours.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu May 29 2008 04:56 AM |
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Re: TD 01E
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with the blocking high over the GOM...nothing is going to come up for many days. There is a slight opportunity sunday into monday but that wont happen. On our first system...the Ukmet was the winner. The GFS does a very good job up to 3 days out. After that ..every model falls apart. Im partial though to the ECMWF for days 4-5. Anyways, Florida really can use the rain.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 29 2008 09:36 AM |
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Re: TD 01E
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Looks like we could indeed easily have ourselves Alma -at any moment- this morning.
Here are some of the latest intensity estimates.
Given the improved structure.. specifically, the much improved banding, not to mention also the quality and quantity of deep convection, this 48 knot estimate might not be that far off in the future, if not already there.
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E
Thursday 29may08 Time: 0706 UTC
Latitude: 11.20 Longitude: -86.70
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 26 [1<--->30]
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| Estimated MSLP: 995 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 48 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
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Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.76
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.96
RMW: 111 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1008 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-18
ATCF data for Month: 05 Day: 29 Time (UTC): 0600
And here from the 2AM PDT TD01E Discussion #2
NHC going a little conservative, by their own admission:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
200 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR
THE CENTER AND A VIGOROUS BAND WEST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
ASCAT DATA SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR 03Z...AND THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN INNER WIND CORE. BASED MAINLY ON THE
ASCAT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 35 KT ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
| punkyg |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu May 29 2008 11:57 AM |
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Re: TD 01E
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Where do you think TD 1E or should I say soon to be TS Alma is gonna make landfall?
| cchsweatherman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu May 29 2008 12:53 PM |
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Tropical Depression 1E Now Tropical Storm Alma
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Tropical Depression 1E has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Alma per the NAVY website. There is a very impressive structure with well-defined center that now has developed an intense CDO, obvious banding features to the south, and the circulation has continued to tighten and deepen, thus lending to further strengthening. Would not be surprised to see a moderate tropical storm when they issue the advisory - that is winds between 50 and 60 mph.
| hofloka |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu May 29 2008 03:16 PM |
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Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
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Now is TS Alma.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 29 2008 03:52 PM |
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clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up
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Alma pulled herself together rapidly even hugging the coastline as she does you can see an eye like feature that is impressive.
Other Pacific storms this year have rapidly intensified as well. It will be interesting to see if this happens in the Atlantic storms as well. Or...where Alma goes from here..
Moving slowly and going to cause flooding grief in that part of the world. With such slow movement I don't see
how it makes the crossing but you never know.
Check out the CDO.. on close up.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.htm
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 29 2008 04:11 PM |
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Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up
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This is a very impressive tropical cyclone. Most impressive that it has been able to improve so dramatically while also so close to the coast. I keep thinking of Humberto (ATL 2007).. while reportedly no storm before or since has intensified more rapidly while so close to land, comparisons can be loosely made, given 01E.'s dynamite appearance and rapid strengthening.
Hurricane Warnings are now up along the coast!
TROPICAL STORM ALMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
900 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008
SATELLITE...MICROWAVE...AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT ALMA IS
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF ALMA AND
TO ISSUE NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. ALMA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1600Z 11.7N 86.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 12.5N 87.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.5N 89.0W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu May 29 2008 04:29 PM |
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Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up
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Yeah: There is no question this is moving north and it is probably Cat 1 now based on the visible presentation. Looking at the WV loop trying to discern the synoptic pattern which has been influenced greatly by the rapid development of Alma, I don't see anything that will deviate this to the NW or out to sea. There is a weak ULL to its west which should help push it north into Central America.
The whole moisture envelope in the W. Carribean is continuing to expand and gradually drift north as well. If the GFS is still trying to pull a string in the W.Carribean in 3 days or so that may be in the zone of probable. Other models however don't do anything in the longer run as far as impact on Florida from even an increased precipitation event next week.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu May 29 2008 04:34 PM |
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Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up
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Alma certainly appears to be well organized and intensifying on sat pictures. There seems to be an eye feature developing as well, which indicates the storm may well be a minimal hurricane already. SSTs are fairly warm along the coast there, too. It will be interesting to see what happens after this system moves inland and begins to dissipate in relation to its affect on the unsettled weather in the adjacent Caribbean.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 29 2008 05:25 PM |
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Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up
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See... it is hard to believe models that don't show Florida getting more than it's share of some rain the next few days. Just from the sats alone you can see moisture streaming north and feeding an already monsoonal patten in South Florida starting up. And, there is a slow moving trough coming down the state as moisture from the outflow pattern of Alma is spreading in Florida's direction.
Too soon to buy into any real path as she is moving slow across mucho land mass and time will tell but I have a problem with models not picking up on chances of higher than normal tropical rain for Florida from this. Maybe not a named storm but something tropical other than afternoon thunderstorms.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
And, yes.. it has had an eye like feature since around 11 am if not earlier and I don't think it's an illusion.. plus, outflow... well established outflow.