MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jul 22 2008 09:10 PM |
Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Makes Landfall at South Padre Island
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3:00PM EDT / 2:00 CDT 23 July 2008 Update
Dolly has made landfall at South Padre Island.
9:33AM EDT / 8:33 CDT 23 July 2008 Update
From recon reports, it appears that Dolly is now a Category 2 Hurricane.
7:45AM EDT / 6:45 CDT 23 July 2008 Update
Dolly is nearing Category 2 strength as it heads generally toward the Rio Grande river.
Pressure has fallen off this morning, and Dolly is looking better organized than last night.
Dolly's forward motion is slower this morning, and it still appears to be slowing down, which could cause rainfall totals over Southern Texas/Northern Mexico to be extreme (10 inches in some spots, possibly more). This area has had a bit of a drought lately,so some rain is welcome, these however, will likely cause flooding.
Hopefully everyone has prepared. It may be a lot of those that stayed at or near the coast will say "I'll never stay there during a hurricane again" very soon.
Good luck and God bless all those in the path of the system.
Original Update
Dolly has been upgraded to Hurricane Status, during the evening hours conditions will deteriorate in Southern Texas and northern Mexico. Hurricane Warnings are up from Rio San Fernando in Mexico across the border to Corpus Christi.
Dolly is also slowing down forward motion, which could prolong the period of heavy rainfall and winds over the area.
Dolly's internal structure has improved this afternoon. Recent IR and hi resolution visible satellite imagery strongly argue for the production of an eye. We are also see the explosive genesis of a central dense overcast (CDO) feature. This combined with recent reconnaissance report of 75kt flight level wind has prompted National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dolly to hurricane status.
As of the 5pm EDT update, her forward motion has been decreasing slightly and is now northwest at 10mph. Central pressure was approximately 986mb and her maximum winds were set at 75mph.
Oceanic heat content remains is good, shear has relaxed considerable over what Dolly experienced with the TUTT yesterday, and upper level divergence is looking good with clear anticyclonic outflow established. There is just ever so slightly some impinging southerly winds do to the TUTTs final last tentacles of contact, but it appears these are too weak at this point to be much of any significant mitigation to development. It is for these reasons that the official intensity by NHC is set a little higher than the more robust model solutions, now taking Dolly to 80kts just prior to making landfall. It should be noted however, that a couple of higher resolution models (discussed below) are a tad slower and farther north along the coast. The longer Dolly stays over the warm waters of the Gulf, the stronger is could become.
There was some contention during the afternoon on where/when Dolly will cross the coastline. Earlier runs had somewhat tightly clustered around an approximate Brownsville landing. However, a couple of the higher resolution models, including the WRF and the HWRF, are bringing Dolly up farther along the TX Coast before turning her left and onto land. For this reason, folks up into the Bend area of the TX Coast need to monitor this with due diligence. This is also a good time to remind people not to focus on the exact location the actual eye crosses the coast, and to pay close attention to the wind field radii information.
This is also going to be a slow mover as it comes inland. Citizens in the interior parts of southern TX and near the Rio Grande valley need to take early precautionary measure to protect against the threat of flooding, in typically vulnerable areas, for what is likely to be a protracted period of excessive rainfall while Dolly slowly winds down.
John (typhoon_tip)
Event Related Links
Power Outage map for Brownsville Area
{{radarlink|bro|Brownsville, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|crp|Corpus Christi, TX Radar}}
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
South Padre Island Blog
Local Media:
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KURV 710 News/Talk
Webcams:
Coastal Surfing Pier Cam (Corpus Christi)
South Padre Island Cams: BeachCam SurfCam Bay Cam
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams
Recordings:
Dolly Brownsville Level 3 Radar
South Padre Beach Cam
South Padre Island Surf Cam -- High Res
South Padre Island Bay Cam (Down)
South Padre Island Radisson Resort Beach Cam
Bob Hall Pier Corpus Christi
{{StormLinks|Dolly|04|4|2008|2|Dolly}}
{{StormLinks|Cristobal|03|3|2008|4|Cristobal}}
{{StormLinks|97L|97|5|2008|1|97L}}
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jul 22 2008 09:23 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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here's the flight path from AF Recon who is still on the storm... notice the classic flight pattern. The three eye passes have different pressure readings everytime... indications that Dolly is getting stronger. N42RF is south of PNS flying wsw from Tampa.
UPDATE: AFRECON is about 20miles from center coming in from the NW... will see what Dolly is up too in a 15 mins or so..
there in the eyewall a few mins ago... NW side...
Time:
21:52:30Z
Coordinates:
24.92N 95.62W
Acft. Static Air Press:
695.8 mb (~ 20.55 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
3,034 meters (~ 9,954 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
990.2 mb (~ 29.24 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 52° at 49 knots (From the NE at ~ 56.3 mph)
Air Temp:
9.0°C (~ 48.2°F)
Dew Pt:
9.0°C (~ 48.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
65 knots (~ 74.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
33 mm/hr (~ 1.30 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jul 22 2008 10:22 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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looks like pressure down to 984mb... dropsonde data just hit the servers... vortex report coming soon
984mb (29.06 inHg) at the surface... air temp 27.0°C (80.6°F) dew point 25.6°C (78.1°F)
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jul 22 2008 10:29 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Vortex report out
pressure down
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 22:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2008
Storm Name: Dolly (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 22:00:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°44'N 95°24'W (24.73N 95.40W)
B. Center Fix Location: 155 miles (249 km) between the ESE and SE (123°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,967m (9,734ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 48° at 62kts (From the NE at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,035m (9,957ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
...............................................
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:29:30Z
Distance of Surface Center From Flight Center: Surface center is within 5 nautical miles of flight center.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 12:05 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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latest vortex from AF Recon.. continues to show a 1mb per hr drop.. down to 982mb.. one thing i have noticed in the recon mission... the temperature at flight level at 10,000ft. is changing with time... almost a 10 deg. difference now between inside and outside the center/eyewall... at 10kft. NOAA plane made a pass through at about the same time the AF recon plane did a 180 and appears to be headed home. GPS dropsonde from NOAA plane recorded a Sea Surface Temperature: 28.0°C in the western eyewall
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 03:05 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Thanks for the recon data. Amazing that she finally has an eye. Models did a good job holding on to her throughout her slow progress into a hurricane.
Concerned about the sat imagery that shows so much rainfall on her north side. Imagine many places along the
Texas coastline will get huge amounts of rain from this storm and since she is slow moving there could be many problems along a widespread area.
Hope people within her various warning areas take note of fast changing weather conditions.
Love the cam with the radar on the main page.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 03:35 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Fresh water flooding is likely to be the greatest threat of all out of Dolly.. and this will apply to her sphere of influence all the way around, and not just on any one side.
To her left and inland (likely will be to her southwest at landfall and then south as she progresses inland) are the formidable Sierra Madre Orientals. Dolly could easily wring out 10-30++ inches of rain over large areas in these, considering her slowing forward speed, and ultimately, her expected demise over these very mountains
In the Rio Grande Valley, Dolly is expected to produce widespread 3 to 8 inch rainfall totals, with locally higher amounts of 15 inches or more.. largely dependent on her forward speed, assuming she makes landfall within about 40 miles either side of Brownsville. On Abrams & Bettes tonight (TWC) Mike Bettes was reporting from lines of cars and trucks blocks long.. people waiting in them for up to two and a half hours for their maximum allotment of eight sand bags.
Of course, as with all landfalling tropical cyclones, tornadoes and waterspouts will probably become a risk, and Texas tends to get them good from TCs. SPC has been hinting around that watches will be going up for much of extreme south Texas - along the coast initially, and then progressing inland. (As Random points out, they were in fact issuing Watch #732 as I was typing - It covers deep south Texas and adjacent coastal waters until 10AM Wednesday - A very long duration, but also an ever-slower moving hurricane).
All-in-all, those 80MPH winds are in a really small portion of the cyclone. Considering how small a sliver within the eyewall the HF winds are, Brownsville may never experience them at all. Of course, for whoever does, it's going to feel like an EF1 tornado that just goes on and on and on. Prudent course of action is to not play by un-boarded windows.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 03:47 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Correction: already a tornado watch up for Southern Texas:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0732.html
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 05:43 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Dolly doesnt have a eye,.,...just a center of circulation....A " EYE" is apparent when all radar and satellite imagery show little if any weather in the center of circulation.....Dolly has cold cloud tops over the center on infrared still.. this could change though in the early hours of the morning.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 06:19 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Nighttime has been good to Dolly so far, but bad for south Texas.
As of 1AM CDT, Brownsville radar, color-enhanced IRs and the most recent microwave passes expose an undeniable improvement in Dolly's internal structure, including a now essentially complete, 360°, closed eyewall, although it is a bit ragged and still weak in parts. Cloud tops have also cooled substantially during the past few hours, with a ring of very cold tops now encircling the COC.
Given that numerous center fixes have found Dolly's pressure to have leveled off at around 982mb, with the recent developments it becomes reasonable to expect her winds to soon follow, with perhaps even yet another lowering of her pressure before sunrise. An oft-associated pressure-to-wind relationship suggests an increase to 85MPH, given the 982mb level, and another deepening phase may render this past-news before too long.
On a tracking side note, given the slowing of forward speed and a few obvious wobbles, it would be very prudent that everyone even fairly well north and south of the center of NHC's "Cone of Uncertainty" to rush to completion any preparations they need to make to be prepared for a significant hurricane strike.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 06:25 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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agree with your obs... i thought in recent views on sats... that a opening was appearing, maybe some weak sign of the eye... not sure about that just yet....i love the fact that the levell II data is in super res. mode and showing a very decent eyewall. (from KBRO) First TIME for everything... hehe. The biggest concern to me will be the FRESH WATER Flooding... i hope people take the warning and get to higher grounds... cuz with the expected rain... that area will flood for a few days.... before it flushes back into the GOM.
Recon about to make what looks like last pass through the center. and based on some data coming in.. i think the pressure is starting to drop again.. will know in a few mins
UPDATE: pressure is back to falling again... down to 980mb EYE is open on the south side... and until she cloeses the south side of the eye, she shouldn't get to much stronger.
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 6:14:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°27'N 96°16'W (25.45N 96.27W)
B. Center Fix Location: 83 miles (133 km) to the ESE (114°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,902m (9,521ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 20° at 60kts (From the NNE at ~ 69.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:04:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 6:20:10Z
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 64kts (~ 73.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 6:20:20Z
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 08:19 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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It looks like we're about to get a new one below 975.. and still falling.
Surprising that winds aren't yet much higher than 80-ish. This almost has to change, shortly.
Close-enough.. Here's a bit of the 4AM Discussion
Quote:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SFMR...
DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASUREMENTS UP TO NOW HAVE
YIELDED 70 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...I HAVE TOO MUCH RESPECT
FOR THIS ABRUPT FALL IN PRESSURE TO NOT SHOW ANY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 75 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOWS A
BANDING-TYPE EYE THAT IS TRYING TO CLOSE OFF ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN FEEDER BANDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
| xxflcyclonexx |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 08:58 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Dolly really does look as though she's getting her act together. Each time I look at the radar and sat images I'm more impressed. I think I see a little jog to the north as well. Could be a wobble though but Brownsville is looking more like ground zero than ever, to me at least.
On a sidenote, Cristobal, or what's left of it, is racing by Newfoundland. Here's the view from the St . John's radar http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WTP
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 11:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Down to 972mb with a closed 20nm circular eye.
Surface winds to 79mph (69kts).
Per vortex recon half hour ago.
Edit:
Inbound dropsonde got 82kt surface winds (and 103kt not that far up). Wonder why they picked 69kt for the vortex recon?
We should have another vortex recon in the next 20 minutes.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 11:41 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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From the 5am Discussion......."SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING."
From the Brownsville composite radar loop, it appears that Dolly has slowed even further, making little if any progress in the last hour.......similar to Frances of SE Florida in 2004!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 11:52 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Tornado Warnings up in Texas!
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bro&wwa=tornado%20warning
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 11:53 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Not much more to do now other than wish the best for those in South Texas and Northern Mexico.
The camera recordings should all start back up at 8AM EDT (7AM CDT), assuming they still have power.
Other warnings (Tornado, flood, etc) will show up for Brownsville on the main page top popups,
Recordings:
Dolly Brownsville Level 3 Radar (Now Active)
South Padre Beach Cam
South Padre Island Surf Cam -- High Res
South Padre Island Bay Cam (Now Active)
South Padre Island Radisson Resort Beach Cam (Now Active)
Webcams:
Coastal Surfing Pier Cam (Corpus Christi)
South Padre Island Cams: BeachCam SurfCam Bay Cam
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 11:57 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Eye pass complete.
HDOB estimates 966mb. Waiting on Dropsonde and Vortex Recon messages. Will update this post when they arrive.
Vortex Recon in:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 11:59Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2008
Storm Name: Dolly (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 19
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 11:46:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°49'N 96°38'W (25.82N 96.63W)
B. Center Fix Location: 54 miles (86 km) to the E (98°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,818m (9,245ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 227° at 74kts (From the SW at ~ 85.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: C20
M. Eye Shape / Orientation / Diameter (Undecoded): CLOSED
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:31:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 78kts (~ 89.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 11:52:40Z
---
This represents a 5mb drop in about an hour. Pretty fast drop. We should start seeing the winds catch up with the pressure drops pretty soon.
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 12:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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I am in Mcallen Texas at the moment, and the weather is deteriorating slowly, clouds lowering and wind slowly picking up. I am curious if the track of the storm will bring the eye over Mcallen.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 12:36 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Given the current track, I'd guess the eye will come over you. Keep in mind, however, that Dolly will start to lose strength as soon as she makes landfall. She will probably be a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time she gets to you. Be on the lookout for tornadoes.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 12:44 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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I modified the camera recordings to just show the images from today below:
South Padre Beach Cam
South Padre Island Surf Cam -- High Res
South Padre Island Bay Cam (Now Active)
South Padre Island Radisson Resort Beach Cam (Now Active)
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 12:58 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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NHC Advisory 12B, Issued at 8AM CDT, has maximum sustained winds increased to 95 mph, right on the threshold of becoming a Category 2 Hurricane. They predict some more strengthening before landfall, and it looks like Dolly will become a triple digit wind intensity storm before landfall, just a little bit stronger than what the Forecast Intensities have been calling for.
And those camera shots show just how nasty it already is on the Texas coastline with the center just offshore.
| Brett Addison |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 12:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Looks like we are seeing a strong cat. 2 or possibly cat. 3 in the making. The way the pressure has been dropping and the formation of the eye wall I would not be surprised if they upgraded the storm to a cat.2 with 105 to 110 mph by the next update (11:00am). The storm also seems to be wobbling a little further to the north and slowing down which is very bad news for south Texas. I hope everyone in south Texas stays safe and out of harms way.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 01:07 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Quote:
Looks like we are seeing a strong cat. 2 or possibly cat. 3 in the making. The way the pressure has been dropping and the formation of the eye wall I would not be surprised if they upgraded the storm to a cat.2 with 105 to 110 mph by the next update (11:00am). The storm also seems to be wobbling a little further to the north and slowing down which is very bad news for south Texas. I hope everyone in south Texas stays safe and out of harms way.
Don't think there will be enough time to make 3, mid-strong 2 is very possible.
I do think many who stayed on South Padre will wish they hadn't.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 01:17 PM |
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South Padre Island
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Jim Cantore recently said that 35% of the Islands residents/ tourists had evacuated. Apparently the 70% that stayed behing forgot about last year's rapid spin up Storm.
Dolly is doing almost the same thing... Max poss wind speed from the pressure-wind relationship is 108 MPH.
I don't think she will reach 108 MPH, but I she wasn't expected to reach 95 MPH either.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 01:28 PM |
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Re: South Padre Island
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Latest pressure is down to 961mb, so it's definitely into Cat 2 territory, the cat 3 territory is very possible now if it slows down further.
I don't expect it, but this is reminding me of what occured in Charley before landfall (intensity, not track wise), except the storm is moving west and much slower.
edit:
Vortex message clarifies it, 964mb. Still an impressive drop in a short amount of time.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 01:28 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Dolly looks to be strengthening right up to landfall. Here on the upper Texas coast we are wishing for the best for our neighbors in
South Texas.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 01:31 PM |
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Re: South Padre Island
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I am not surprised Dolly spun up like this. I watched Humberto spin up really fast last year before he came ashore in our area.
The Gulf...if you look at the history...it can hold surprises.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 02:01 PM |
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Re: South Padre Island
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It appears that the eyewall has broken on the north side, which means it won't strengthen too much more, and may spare (hopefully) some of the worst.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 02:19 PM |
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Re: South Padre Island
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there are small vorticies spinning around the eyewall which are more intense than the other areas of the eyewall. On a radar loop these might look like breaks in the eyewall but are definitely not. This information is per accuweather (a.k.a. JB)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 02:44 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Greetings...first time poster, not yet registered. Forgive the question, but does it look to anyone else like in the last 10 frames of the radar loop the eye has turned sharply north?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 02:45 PM |
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Re: South Padre Island
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Radar definitely shows weak or non-existent convection in the northern half of the eyewall. In fact, there is a definite asymmetry in the intensity of convection in the southern half of the circulation compared to the northern half overall . Unless Dolly manages to correct this asymmetry prior to landfall, the intensity should not get out of control, though a continued slow increase is possible as long as it remains over water.
Dolly definitely has slowed and appears to be paralleling the coastline for the time being. That is bad news as far as wind and rain exposure goes. At this point, it would be best if Dolly resumed a more westward motion and got its landfall over with.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 03:23 PM |
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Re: South Padre Island
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TO the METs here. I'm trying to find a better WV image/ loop that will indicate whether the trough in the Tennessee Valley is picking up Dolly. Any opinions?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 03:37 PM |
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Re: South Padre Island
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This is a bad situation for Brownsville and extreme S TX....first the island barriers should get pounded for the next 6-12 hrs..even after it makes landfall due to the slow motion.....also exteme flooding due to slow movement everywhere. Widespread torandos over the next 2 days, loss of electricity. Please anyone being affected by Dolly...plz stay indoors for the next 24-30 hrs unless its a emergency.. the less on the roads..the better.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 03:46 PM |
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Re: South Padre Island
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Power is out to South Padre Island as of 10:15 AM CDT/11:15 EDT, so no more webcams there, unfortunately.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 04:14 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Wobbles are common. Still looks like it is going NW at a very slow speed. This will have some very bad effects along the south Texas coastal areas.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 04:24 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Dolly's going to tear up the barrier islands in the area. I hope the fact that Dolly's moving north of Brownsville will help keep the Rio Grande levee system intact.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 05:02 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Looking at the water vapor loops and I don't see how Dolly gets very far inland as the models project.
Looks to me like high pressure coming down and she is going to sit there inland somewhere and rain herself out
which will stress a lot of areas and cause flooding in many places.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
storms fired to the north of her when she wobbled north and high pressure is pushing down at her from the north and the west.. this is going to be a prolonged event to say the least.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 05:41 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Fox news live video stream from S. Padre: (Well was from there until the feed was lost, now appears to be Galveston)
link here
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 06:27 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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There are people on the beach? Is it the eye or a old feed? If its the eye then people ( kids )are crazy to be running around the beach! + all the traffic there.. I would think this was yesterday?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 06:29 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Live feed is Galveston
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 06:32 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Live Video can't be S. Padre. The road does not run along the beach in S. Padre. Has to be Galveston
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 06:41 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Amazing coverage by Dolly. It looks like the outer bands go all the way to the Panhandle:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 06:45 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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Quote:
There are people on the beach? Is it the eye or a old feed? If its the eye then people ( kids )are crazy to be running around the beach! + all the traffic there.. I would think this was yesterday?
About an hour ago the feed from Padre was lost (last camera image was very distorted and cracked), it's since been replaced with another one, so i'll note that.
all the S. Padre cameras are down.
Power Outage map for Brownsville Area
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 06:45 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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We are getting some of the outer bands here on the upper coast of Texas
We are getting rain here. Dolly's satellite picture is impressive. We are
keeping our friends down South in our thoughts and prayers.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 06:55 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Approaches Brownsville
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S. Padre Island is Still feeling the worst of this storm, much longer than I think many were anticipating. I'm not looking forward to seeing all that happened there.
Power Outage map for Brownsville Area
South Padre Island Blog
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 07:20 PM |
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Re: Category 2 Hurricane Dolly Makes Landfall at South Padre Island
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Land Fall appears to be very close to where Hurricane Allen in 1980 went inland!
Drove from San Antonio to Corpus Christ that Sunday Morning. It was a real thrill. Driving in the left land and all of a sudden you were in the right hand lane going for the shoulder. The HEB trucks were bringing supplies. there must have been 50 of them.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 07:27 PM |
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Hurricane Fit For Texas
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Hurricane Dolly is now an upper-end Cat 1, having been interacting with land, and in fact just recently having made landfall along South Padre Island, where numerous weaker, and even some better-built structures, are reported to have sustained heavy damage. Jim Cantore and Julie Martin (TWC) reporting from phone-ins at the Radison in South Padre, report that their roof is peeling away and some windows are blowing out. As far as injuries go, they are also reporting that a young man who chose to stand out on the balcony of a 7th story somewhere around there was blown off, and has sustained serious injuries. It is looking like Dolly will leave more of a mess in many places in deep south Texas than any other tropical cyclone since perhaps Hurricane Beulah (September, 1967).
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 08:02 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Fit For Texas
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Even though Dolly is a Cat 1 her slow movement will cause a lot of damage. Hurricane Francis was about the same strength and a slow mover over us and did considerable damage because of the length of time we spent in hurrricane and tropical force winds not to mention the tornado threat and huge amounts of rain. . Our power was out for seven days.
| xxflcyclonexx |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 09:30 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Fit For Texas
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Home videos from South Padre Island showing some pretty decent winds:
Part 1 http://youtube.com/watch?v=F7nhgUvPO1c
Part 2 http://youtube.com/watch?v=bmrOFxk6DJU
Reporter on Padre Island:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=7PNjUFV8XCA
Home video from Brownsville - slight tree damage filmed from a residence:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=VxvoBhT9x3M
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 09:31 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Hurricane Fit For Texas
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Take a look at the Doppler estimated rainfall. Already some locations have over 18" estimated, and Dolly is barely moving, still sitting over those locations.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=bro&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no
And here she is (timestamp: 1950Z):
(I have one 10 times that size...but don't want to kill my bandwidth to host it; if someone wants it, message me)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 24 2008 03:14 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Fit For Texas
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The old saying goes, "Everything in Texas is Bigger".
I don't think they had Hurricane Dolly in mind when they said that.
Latest composite reflectivity showing the 'eye' area still somewhat intact.
Latest Doppler Radar Rainfall estimates. Gray stripe to the North of Brownsville and through Harlingen is estimated at over 20.00 inches, storm total rainfall in inches.
images courtesy of College of DuPage~danielw
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
725 PM CDT JUL 23 2008
THE FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TODAY DUE TO
HURRICANE DOLLY
CITY/TOWN COUNTY RAINFALL (INCHES)
AIRPORTS (THROUGH 6 PM TODAY):
WESLACO/MID COUNTY HIDALGO 3.02
HARLINGEN/VALLEY CAMERON 3.42*
BROWNSVILLE/INTL CAMERON 5.54
EDINBURG HIDALGO 1.77
MCALLEN/MILLER HIDALGO 1.85
PORT ISABEL/BAYVIEW CAMERON 2.27*
*ESTIMATED DATA
THE FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
DUE TO HURRICANE DOLLY
CITY/TOWN COUNTY WIND
AIRPORTS (THROUGH 6 PM TODAY):
PORT ISABEL/BAYVIEW CAMERON 58 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70*
HARLINGEN/VALLEY CAMERON 56 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 74*
BROWNSVILLE/INTL CAMERON 51 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 68
RINCON (TCOON) KENEDY 59 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 76
BAYVIEW (TCOON) CAMERON 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 68
BAHIA GRANDE (TCOON) CAMERON 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 74
MCALLEN/MILLER HIDALGO 33 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 47
BUOY020 39 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 51
*ESTIMATED DATA
Estimated data at Harlingen is due to the AWOS/ ASOS requiring maintenance. ( As Most all AWOS do after a hurricane passes nearby)~danielw