MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 11:57 AM |
Josephine Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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5:00AM EDT Update
Recon suggest that Hanna has performed a possible cyclonic loop and now a possible slow north turn. The Forecast Track remains about the same for now.
Tropical Storm Ike will likely be a forecasting problem. The NHC 1-2 day track looks good, after that there is much uncertainty.
Tropical Storm Josephine is maintaining for now. It is a bit stronger from the previous update/discussion.
3:56PM EDT Update
Hanna is still drifting around, recon recently found a pressure of 985 and near hurricane windspeed of 70MPH, so despite shear, Hanna is holding together well. Right now Hanna is drifting slightly, toward the southeast.
Models are not predicting a north or northwest motion until tomorrow afternoon.
Tropical Storm warnings are up for Haiti since it is gotten so close. The entire Southeast, and Florida needs to be closely watching Hanna, as it is forecast to come very close to the Florida East coast, any deviation westward would bring Hanna in as a Hurricane to Florida Thursday night or early Friday.
1:30PM Update
Tropical Storm Josephine forms from TD#10. Hanna's forecast track has moved west a bit, but still has landfall in the Carolinas, the current forecast track would now give some effects of Hanna to Central Florida overnight Thursday into Friday (Less if all the convection remains sheared to the south and east like it is now). And most of Florida is in the Cone.
Repeating the National Hurricane Center, it should be stressed that the expected angle of approach and track uncertainty make it impossible to narrow down the potential impact area of Hanna. Interest in the northwestern Bahamas, and along the entire southeastern United States coast should closely monitor the progress of Hanna.
Hurricane Warnings are up for the southern half of the Bahamas, but no watches currently exist for the US.
Ike still continues to move generally westward, with 60MPH winds.
Original Update
Extremely busy in the tropics this morning, Gustav has made landfall and is now inland bringing flooding rains. No reports of wide scale damage as of yet, but some reports may begin to filter in today. Many areas are out of power.
Now Weakened Tropical Storm Hanna is drifting west, the largest threat is toward the Carolinas, but parts of Florida and Georgia are still well within the cone. Hanna is drifting around right now, but is eventually expected to start generally moving North Northwest and pick up forward speed. Most likely Florida will encounter fringe effects from the system and larger than normal tides along the east coast, this could be more or less depending on how close Hanna gets to Florida. It remains worth watching. Those in North and South Carolina need to watch this the closest, however.
Hanna will likely weaken more today, as it is getting heavily sheared (as many Southward moving storms tend to do). Models predicted this, if Hanna Survives it has a chance to restrengthen later.
Tropical Storm Ike continues to move relatively quickly to the east, and we may have to deal with it next week. Those is the Bahamas will want to watch this weekend for it, and longer range models want to take it into north Cuba or through the Florida straits, but we have a while to watch it.
Tropical Depression Ten...now Tropical Storm Josephine formed this morning as well off the coast of Africa, it most likely will go out to sea, but some models are moving it more back westward. This will be a long track system, so plenty of time to watch it as well. It could form into Josephine as early as today.
Google Plot of Hanna, Ike, and TD#10 ( Add Gustav )
Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management
Lousiana Evac Maps
Video/Audio Links/Webcams
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio and Video
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
The Storm Report Live Video Stream from Houma, LA
New Orleans Webcams
French Quarter Cam
Lake Ponchartrain Causeway
Metarie Webcam
Louisana Instacams
GregLeder Backyard webcam with battery backup
Maroonspoon multiple live coverage of Gustav New Orleans: WGNO, WWL, WDSU, WVUE (Mute individual ones to focus)
New Orleans Police Scanner (Req. Winamp)
Lousiana EM Radio Chatter
Multiple Webcams in Area from HurricaneCity
Louisiana DOT Traffic Cameras
Television/Radio
KATC In Lafayette, LA
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans) HERE
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile
Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans
-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!
Key West Long Range Radar with hint of Gustav
Storm Surge Risks with Gustav along Louisiana
Google Map Plot of Both Gustav and Hanna
Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
{{StormCarib}}
{{radarlink|lix|New Orleans, LA Radar}}
{{radarlink|lch|Lake Charles, LA Radar}}
{{StormLinks|Gustav|07|7|2008|1|Gustav}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|Hanna|08|8|2008|2|Hanna}}
{{StormLinks|Ike|09|9|2008|4|Ike}}
{{StormLinks|TD#10|10|10|2008|0|TD#10}}
{{StormLinks|90L|90|11|2008|3|90L}}
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 12:47 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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The combinaition of northerly shear, outflow from Gustav, and the possibly cooler sst due to upwelling of cooler waters are taking their toll on Hanna. Until the shear eases and she begins to move from the cooler waters Hanna could weaken more, although NHC does not forecast this, it is possible.
Of course too early to let gaurd down as Hanna has looked like this before and just when you think she has weakened convection fires near the center....time will tell and I think next 24 hours will be get better handle on her intensity and track.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 12:52 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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Due to the forward motion of Ike and it's position forecast for Friday, and the slow moving Hanna position on Friday. What are the chances Ike will push Hanna more west during the week?
Or I guess it could also push it faster north as it approaches?
Also noted in Hanna forecast lounge.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 12:56 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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It appears that Hanna may be interacting with the northeastern coast of Haiti...which may be why she has weakened a tad..she's hard to follow because she's not moving much.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 01:08 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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Quote:
It appears that Hanna may be interacting with the northeastern coast of Haiti...which may be why she has weakened a tad..she's hard to follow because she's not moving much.
Hanna is still drifting pretty much westward, that shear is pushing a lot of convection south, however. It's going to be a "rough" day for Hanna. I'm still leaning toward it moving more northward than westward later, however. The latest GFDL run gets awfully close to East Florida, however and eventually into the Florida/Georgia border. With the shearing going on, If it does that, it probably just means more rain for Florida. Just need to watch it.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 01:18 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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Hanna's low level center is exposed right now and she is directly under where the official track has her starting her NW motion. It will be interesting to watch in the next few hours to see if the official track verifies. Look at the exhaust plume coming out of the center and shearing to the SE --fascinating--
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 01:24 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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@Colleen
No, the center of Hanna is just to the north of Great Inagua, It´s totally exposed and all convection only in the SE quadrant.. So it seems, that it´s interacting with Hispaniola, but it isn´t (much).
edit: Just look at Josephine (ex TD10
). An eye-like feature has formed and it has all the features, that a (stronger) TS should have (banding; dense, strong convection and a forming eye)
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 01:45 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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I second this view (of TD #10). It's not in visible on GOES, so no floater yet. However, we did have an IR pass recently from another satellite.
Definitely looking like a TS or weak hurricane. I would be surprised if we don't see an upgrade at 11am. It's so far out at sea that they won't do a special alert upgrade; they only do those when storms are near land.
About 2 hours ago, a ship reported 1009mb pressure about 13nms from the TD 10.
Ref: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at5
--
Hanna is looking anemic, though she's still trying to fire convection. A lot of shear affecting her.
--
Ike is looking very disorganized still, but he's got a lot of time to organize before land.
Edit - added ship data
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 01:54 PM |
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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No doubt, with the climactic degree of tropical cyclone development occuring, there likely is going to be even greater motion and steering uncertaintly created by other evolving tropical cyclones. At the risk of forum policy regarding "chat", I will address a good question regarding Ike's motion possibly impacting Hanna's. It is correct that an eastward approaching tropical cyclone ( depending on intensity and size ), would tend to act as a "rudder" and steer the more westward tropical cyclone in a more westward direction. This is due to the added cyclonic mid level flow accompanying it, however I do not believe such will be be the case with Ike and Hanna, and in this case the very strong progged height rises that are forecasted to steer Ike towards the west, are likely to be the eventual mechanism to sooner steer Hanna before Ike's influence would likely make it to Hanna's longitude. I'll share my own further thoughts however in the Forecast Lounge, if anyone would like to grab a cigar or glass of wine and join me there.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 02:13 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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I can't think when we have had a year where you can put all the cones together and so clearly see the Bermuda High
outlined so well.
Hanna could affect Ike a bit but considering forecast intensity for Ike to be stronger I would think it might affect 10 unless 10 pulls NW too soon.
A complex puzzle of tropical entities on the board now and think we will be studying this year in retrospect for years
to come.
Lounge sounds like a good place for lunch.
I still think Hanna is the messiest to forecast until she pulls it together more.
| Patrick99 |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 02:37 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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Hanna looks really bad right now; Gustav's outflow appears to be doing a number on her.
| PFSThunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 02:49 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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The NAVY site now has TD 10 as 10 NONAME. We have a TS now
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 03:05 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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Not sure how Hanna is going to survive this onslaught. This environment looks to be about as unfavorable for development as it gets:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 03:20 PM |
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Josephine forms
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 021450
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE CYCLONE'S
ORGANIZATION...WITH VERY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND EVEN A
DECEPTIVE CENTRAL FEATURE DISGUISED AS AN EYE. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS
ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD IN THE INFRARED...BUT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 03:22 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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I was watching Joe Bastardi last night on FoxNews. I really dont know why they have him on there due to all his Wrong forecasts. I love Joe, so dont get me wrong, but he takes a system, makes a guess at where it may go, then hypecasts and guesscasts his forecast into meteorolgical terms that just dont make real sense. Like Fay, first he said Caronlinas, then Panhandle, then after crossing the state, back to Carolinas, then NE gulf towards Mobile as a hurricane. Then Gustav, Carolinas,Florida, then Central La-MX, then back to LA within 36hrs of obvious landfall. Hanna, Carolinas (like every storm he starts with almost) and says Hanna will be a Cat 4 to Bill O'rielly of Fox News, and stronger than Gustav and pressure under 950mb.
Again I love watching Joe, cause hes good entertainment, but I dont see how he can say that on national tv about a Cat 4 coming to the Carolinas (ForSure he says). I wouldnt of said that, but I would of said it could be from Florida-Caronlinas and we wont know forsure until it starts moving and we get better data in, could be a Cat 1-Cat3 but a 4 with under 950mb? Not impossible, but I would of held off on that. LOL.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 03:49 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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I agree the water vapor loop makes it look like Hanna's getting beat up badly. I wouldn't count her out yet, she's in warm water . It also looks like Ike will get caught up with Hanna soon if she doesn't move. If nothing else, it looks like Ike will get some shear from Hanna?
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 04:00 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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12Z GFS has her just about on the east central Fl coast at 66 hours. Hana's convection is ramping up once again.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 04:13 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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This has to be saved. The whole year's discussions should be saved.
"DECEPTIVE CENTRAL FEATURE DISGUISED AS AN EYE. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS"
Funny, I just clicked on visible and thought ...oh my goodness.. unreal. But, it just looks like a CDO.
Been the year of deceptive eye like features and sw movement.
Wouldn't write off Hanna, wouldn't call her a possible Cat 4 but after watching the evolution of Jeanne down in the same area looking like she was gasping her final breath... and then she bounced back I would not write off Hanna.
Especially as she has dealt with negative conditions almost her entire time on the maps from way before Invest status even.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Jeanne_2004_track.png
So... hang on, relax and just watch all the pretty storms spin today and get ready tomorrow once we know for sure what will be track wise and intensity.
and I agree..she just had a blow up of convection very visible on visible within the last 30 minutes that was impressive.. see if it continues
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 04:50 PM |
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Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land
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What I find interesting with Hanna is this:
The NHC's 5 day track (as of 11am) is the most eastern outlier.
Model outputs from WU website
I'm not saying anything one way or the other. I know these have and will continue to move until Hanna can get her act together a bit better. I just thought it was interesting.
My guess however is that NHC isn't going to tweek their track very much for now until they are more certain that the left (south) movement of the models is more of an actual trend.
This all ofcourse is dependent upon if she (Hanna) can even hold herself together until Gustav's outflow pulls up and away and what happens with that nice mass of dry air to her north.
As an aside, I know many times (especially with Gustav after he came off the coast of Cuba) there was lots of chatter on here about "I think it's east of the forecast path" "Is it me or does it seem to be wobbling more north" etc., etc.
But, alas, they (NHC) got it right yet again. Just goes to reitterate to us all not to focus on the points but the entire cone instead.
I personally think NHC has done a bang up job and have absolute confidence in them.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 06:19 PM |
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Big Surprise!!!-Center of Hannah totally reformed
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Thats a huge jump to the southeast to the area of the strongest convection!!!
Central pressure down to 985 hPA and max. surface winds up to 71 kt (may be a bit rain inflated, but the midsixties should be for sure).
Good to have recon!
I suppose, that perhaps the mid/upper-level circulation has been transported with the strongest convection and the new low level center has reformed beneath it. What we had seen on satpics earlier was the old low level center.
That`ll have consequences for the future track!
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 06:22 PM |
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Re: Big Surprise!!!-Center of Hannah totally reformed
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Those wind speeds are not inflated looks like Hanna is back up to hurricane force:
Time:
18:06:00Z
Coordinates:
20.5833N 72.1W
Acft. Static Air Press:
842.7 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
1,438 meters (~ 4,718 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
997.0 mb (~ 29.44 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 159° at 51 knots (From the SSE at ~ 58.6 mph)
Air Temp:
13.3°C (~ 55.9°F)
Dew Pt:
13.3°C (~ 55.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
51 knots (~ 58.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
100 knots (~ 115.0 mph)--- Not sure why sfc winds are higher than flight level but the data is not suspect, there are several more readings confirming these wind speeds
SFMR Rain Rate:
13 mm/hr (~ 0.51 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 06:32 PM |
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Re: Big Surprise!!!-Center of Hannah totally reformed
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There is some kind of glitch with recon surface wind data shortly after this reading they stopped reporting surface wind data:
Time:
18:10:30Z
Coordinates:
20.5833N 71.8667W
Acft. Static Air Press:
844.8 mb (~ 24.95 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
1,425 meters (~ 4,675 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
997.1 mb (~ 29.44 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 152° at 58 knots (From the SSE at ~ 66.7 mph)
Air Temp:
14.0°C (~ 57.2°F)
Dew Pt:
14.0°C (~ 57.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
105 knots* (~ 120.7 mph*) SFMR Rain Rate:
0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 06:36 PM |
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Re: Big Surprise!!!-Center of Hannah totally reformed
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Don't believe the SFMR wind readings... they are so far out of line with the central pressure, flight-level winds, satellite presentation, and pretty much everything else we know about Hanna as to be completely unbelievable. The QC flag (I believe) is based on rain rate, but the fact that it is not being tripped with some of those bad obs does not mean there is nothing wrong with the instrument.
If we used the traditional reduction from flight-level winds, intensity would be estimated at 45-50 kts (with the caveat that not all quadrants have been sampled yet). SLP of 985 mb would suggest something around its current listed intensity (60 kts).
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 07:48 PM |
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Re: Big Surprise!!!-Center of Hannah totally reformed
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The center fixes show, that it´s continuing to move southeastward! When does a turn come? Will it be blown into Hispaniola?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 08:48 PM |
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Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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Hanna's quite the interesting storm -- atypical development, ingestion of an upper low, acquiring subtropical elements, prolonged intense convective burst in the face of Gustav-enhanced shear, and today weakening in the face of that shear. What changed today versus yesterday? Most likely the orientation of the shear and the location of a deformation axis, or area where winds come to an axis and "deform" in all directions on either side of it. Yesterday, it was in a highly diffluent area along the deformation axis, but today the upper trough along the east coast has dug a bit further south and pushed that axis away. Hanna is left in an area of weakened steering currents, waiting for the pattern to change slightly, only moving as the center continues to try to redevelop underneath the convection. Since the convection redevelops downshear, the center moves (or reforms) south. Eventually this will end and Hanna should move to the NW, paralleling or running along the FL east coast before landfall in the southeast US, but it's not going to end today.
Ike behind it is chugging along westward underneath a ridge that keeps progressing westward with it. As Ike nears Hanna, the pattern should begin to change and keep the two far enough apart from any significant interaction, but given the large size of Hanna's circulation it's not out of the realm of possibility that northerly shear from Hanna ends up impacting Ike, especially if Hanna moves slower than forecast. Otherwise, conditions appear fairly ripe for Ike with the NHC 11a discussion doing a great job of some of the factors at play. There is a bit of uncertainty in the long-range steering patterns, an uncertainty that only increases if Hanna doesn't start moving as it is possible that the storm could help lift Ike further northward. That's being discounted right now given the lack of evidence in the model forecasts, but it's not impossible.
Josephine's likely a fish. NHC package looks good there, with intensity leveling off in a couple of days as it nears cooler waters. Near-Africa waters in the Atlantic are running above normal for the first time in a few seasons, helping to fuel these storms so far east.
The next wave over Africa is very well organized already and stands a chance at developing in 2-3 days after moving over the open Atlantic. Several models suggest this to occur, developing a fairly intense storm for such easterly latitudes. While that is probably a bit over done, it's quite likely that we've got another storm to deal with before the end of the week. 'Tis the season for such activity -- and we're still over a week away from the peak of the season. Eventually we'll quiet down, but we probably have another week left in this run.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 09:14 PM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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What is your best guess: how long will we have to wait until we can put some confidence in the NHC's predicted path for Hanna?
Thanks,
VS
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 10:05 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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I'm not answering for Clark but this excerpt from the 5:00 says it all. If the official forecast track verifies in the short term, and I think this will happen in the next 24hrs, everyone along the east coast from S Florida to the Carolinas needs to prepare at least for the west side (weak side) of a Cat 1- Cat 2 hurricane --- any small deviation in the track could significantly change the impact level in your area. I sound like Mister Obvious don't I. Here is some back up to my post that I should have included, see attachment..
HOWEVER...UNTIL HANNA BEGINS A
MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. IN ADDITION...THE ANTICIPATED ANGLE OF
APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST MEANS THAN ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL. IN FACT...THE
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE
SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT
EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
This post not meant to sound alarmist
| Tammster |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 10:34 PM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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It just occurred to me that some portions of Florida may soon be in the 5-day cone for 2 storms at once, depending on how fast Ike moves (and of course how slow Hanna moves).
I don't remember this happening recently...
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 11:27 PM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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Oddly becoming some sort of possibility..
you know 2 days before the 1926 Miami Hurricane Hit... a lost tropical storm similar to this passed by
didn't pan out and then the 26 storm came
NOT saying that is happening, just hit me similar
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 11:43 PM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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TWO storms at the same time? Somehow I doubt that would be possible since they would interact with each other greatly. Hanna should be out to sea by the time Ike arrives. Both will likely impact parts of Florida, it appears, but... hopefully.... not at the same time.
| Scott3294 |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 11:43 PM |
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Question on 5pm track
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If you play connect the dots, the 72 hour position is off of Jacksonville and then the 96 hour position is in Virginia. If you draw a straight line from one to the other, the storm stays off shore until it impacts Charleston..this is a Northward track (almost NNE).
Am I correct in my thinking that actually the storm will not move straight (point to point) but more of a curved path that may bring the storm into Georgia as it moves through Friday night into Saturday????
All of this is of course based on current forecasting which we all know can vary greatly over three days.
Thanks
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 11:47 PM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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Quote:
What is your best guess: how long will we have to wait until we can put some confidence in the NHC's predicted path for Hanna?
Thanks,
VS
Ultimately, the NHC track is the one in which you can place most confidence in. When Hanna starts moving, things will be a lot clearer, but in the interim there's no reason not to trust and have confidence in the NHC track. The old adage says to always be prepared for a storm 1 category of intensity higher than forecast; it stands to follow that you should also be prepared for a storm 1 day sooner than forecast.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 11:50 PM |
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Re: Question on 5pm track
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Quote:
If you play connect the dots, the 72 hour position is off of Jacksonville and then the 96 hour position is in Virginia. If you draw a straight line from one to the other, the storm stays off shore until it impacts Charleston..this is a Northward track (almost NNE).
Am I correct in my thinking that actually the storm will not move straight (point to point) but more of a curved path that may bring the storm into Georgia as it moves through Friday night into Saturday????
All of this is of course based on current forecasting which we all know can vary greatly over three days.
Thanks
It is likely that there will be a little bit of curvature to the track that a straight line simply cannot account for, but not a large amount. But -- don't focus on the track line itself! Track errors in the 72-84 hr time frame are over a couple of hundred of miles. All of the eastern seaboard is well within the cone of error with Hanna's forecast track and that is what everyone should focus upon. Thus, prepare as though the storm will hit, even if it misses just to the east or well to the east.
| Tammster |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 11:51 PM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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I don't think two storms will hit at the same time... but I think it's definitely possible for parts of Florida to be in two separate 5-day cones at the same time.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 11:57 PM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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I think it's too early to speculate where and what Ike will be in 6-7 days. Hanna obviously will keep us all on our toes. Personally, I am keeping an eye on her, but not panicking.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 02 2008 11:59 PM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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Quote:
I don't think two storms will hit at the same time... but I think it's definitely possible for parts of Florida to be in two separate 5-day cones at the same time.
Sorry I misread the earlier post. Not only is that possible, it's probable, tomorrow or Thursday. Ike's 5-day cone will likely include the SE portion of the state by then, and Hanna will likely still be around, too. In that case, we would have the same portion of the state in two separate 5-day cones at the same time. The "follow the leader" scenario outlined by some models a few days ago is playing itself out, it would seem.
Edit: Just looked at the tropical storm force wind potential graphics on NHC site..The entire South Atlantic Ocean is just about in a cone for tropical storm force winds in the next 5 days, from Cape Verde, west to Florida.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 12:07 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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The 8pm advisory states that Hannah is drifting EAST, is this a typo or is she actually moving EAST?? Confirmation appreciated. An eastbound hurricane is a new one for me.
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 12:08 AM |
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Re: Question on 5pm track
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My question is, and I apologize if this is the wrong forum to ask, but could Ike follow Hanna as she opens up a path?
Like following in the wake of a boat where the water is smoother?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 12:15 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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east...
check out wv loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
you can see the V diving down and it seems to lift Hanna a drop to the east.. imagine we can call it a loop and will loop back??
also... we could have 2 storms but one would more likely be stronger than the other
conditions change, every storm is different
miami weather radio has "tropical storm force winds possible" playing
| shewtinstar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 12:33 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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Hanna looks, to me, like a big mess. Almost like she is being torn in half. Ike is looking much more organized. I am wondering if Ike will punch though Hanna's mess and take the lead?????
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 12:46 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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Quote:
The 8pm advisory states that Hannah is drifting EAST, is this a typo or is she actually moving EAST?? Confirmation appreciated. An eastbound hurricane is a new one for me.
It is not all that uncommon. Many storms do loops. It does seem much more likely that the storm would loop from SE to E to NE to N to NW at this point since it has been generally moving in that type of circular motion.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 12:53 AM |
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can two systems actually collide?
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Can two tropical cyclones, say two hurricanes, actually collide and, if yes, what happens when they do?
Thanks!
VS
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 12:58 AM |
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Re: can two systems actually collide?
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Two hurricanes can collide its called the Fuijiwara Effect, Wikipedia states:
When the cyclones approach each other, their centers will begin orbiting cyclonically about a point between the two systems. The two vortices will be attracted to each other, and eventually spiral into the center point and merge. When the two vortices are of unequal size, the larger vortex will tend to dominate the interaction, and the smaller vortex will orbit around it.
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 01:35 AM |
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Re: can two systems actually collide?
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When hurricanes get close enough to each other they do spin around each other in the Fujiwara effect, as Lee-Delray said, however, they can begin interacting even before that. The outflow from the systems will disrupt each other, acting as shear. And if they get close enough(very, very close) the two circulations can disrupt the inflow to each other as well. Generally both storms weaken when they get too close.
In the case of Hanna vs Ike...Hanna has very establish outflow to the east an south, extending many hundreds of miles away from the center, Ike, while having a better overall structure, doesn't have near the outflow to the west of the center to combat Hanna's large envelope of outflow extending past the Leeward Islands. It would seem likely that Ike would come out worse in this scenario, but it wouldn't be good for either storm.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 02:53 AM |
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Re: can two systems actually collide?
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looks like Kyle could be the biggest of the 4 siblings. take a look at the next wave leaving Africa.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 02:54 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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NHC has been doing an overall great job keeping up with these storms and incorporating an incredible amount of analysis and forecast data into their advisories.
Bottom line is that Hanna should be a hurricane in 24 hours and will likely inundate the northern Bahamas with squalls by Thursday before paralleling the FL east coast with high surf and landfalling along SC coast Friday.
By the time Ike enters this region on Sunday, he'll be encountering increased shear, just like Hanna has been, and seems to be destined for a WSW path across eastern Cuba, although the models are all suggesting slightly different variations at this point in time, as noted by NHC.
I think it's been very interesting to see Hanna holding off and holding its own, until Gustav dissipates and merges with an approaching trof.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 03:06 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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but note that shear is forecast to weaken
| JonB |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 03:57 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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Well..it all could change. Hannah does not look good. It will be interesting to see what it turns out to be.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 04:17 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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I would send a PM to all the admins but Ill just want to know where is the IKE lounge. I see even Josephine, but am I just not seeing IKE? Anyways I posted up my forecast on Hanna in her lounge!
Edit -- it's there, it only has a couple of posts in it, though, and has sorta been bumped down the forum listing in the Forecast Lounge as a result. -Clark
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 06:45 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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The ultimate key for Ike is going to be how fast Hanna moves out. A continued slow movement for Hanna and Ike will catch up to the storm and will likely be directed northward in a bit of Fujiwhara-style interaction given its small size versus Hanna's large size. If Hanna starts to move northwestward soon, however, these effects are likely to be minimal. Look at the 00z model guidance for further clues on this -- the slower Hanna moves, the more poleward Ike is directed. The UKMET model has been consistent with this for many runs now and the global models, all of which have pretty good representations of Hanna, suggest a slower movement than the GFDL/HWRF hurricane models and show a tad more interaction with Ike. What will happen? What happens today will be a big clue to that.
Overnight, Ike looks to be developing an eye and is nearing hurricane intensity; Josephine's deep convection has weakened and now the storm is caught between an upper level trough to its northwest and a very large tropical wave to its east. It's so far east, though, that even if it were to somehow make it across the ocean it is at least 10 days from the mainland. Hanna is still highly sheared but with such a large circulation envelope it's not going anywhere anytime soon unless it somehow manages to slide over Hispaniola. It should ultimately end up making landfall somewhere on the SE US coast, but as noted above it's still very much an open question as to explicitly when this occurs.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 07:05 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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I have another version:
Recon is in Hanna again and found a center near 20 N, 72.5 W with a pressure of 994 hPA. There is absolutely no stronger convection around it, as seen on microwave pics and there is nearly no rain around it a measured by recon. There are only small areas of winds with just tropical storm force around it and the flow pattern is a bit strange.
So I would say, this center will die down regardless where it moves in the next hours. Shear is also still quite stronge. The only weak chance for Hanna to survive I would see in a center reformation in the strongest convection much to the east. I hope recon goes into this area and looks, if there is something happening or not.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 07:27 AM |
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Hanna may have some characteristics that change the game today
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Recall Saturday that Hanna very nearly was reclassified as a Subtropical Storm. The cyclone went from being a classic warm-cored tropical cyclone, to interacting with an upper-level low, and finally melding with the upper level low that day and night.
In response to interaction with the TUTT which had been impeding intensification, Hanna suddenly took on an appearance closely resembling that of a deep-layered, cold-core cut-off low. It is arguable that if it hadn't been for the northwesterly shear imparted upon it courtesy Gustav, Hanna would never have had so much very deep convection flaring up to the south and southeast... and subsequently, never had multiple center reformations to the southeast - and all would be good and well with forecasts insisting on an imminent northwesterly turn, but without those center reformations, Hanna could also have become a subtropical storm for at least a couple of advisories.
In the end, Hanna's LLC caught up with multiple rounds of extremely deep convection.. West Pac-style deep convection, even... and intensification was simply off to the races. But, as shear would have it, this was not to last.
And one now has to wonder how much that transition from tropical to (arguably) subtropical and back to tropical again really took.
The case for considering the possibility that Hanna is once again exhibiting a trend a bit back towards subtropical in nature is twofold:
First, a recent recon center fix, if correct, shows that Hanna may be attempting to turn into a cold-cored cyclone. By very definition, this would negate legitimately recognizing her as a Tropical Cyclone. Second, the strongest winds are no longer all right around the center of circulation, but also within a fuzzy band some 40-75 miles out from the center, based on the sampled portions of the windfield so far, suggesting some subtropical characteristics may be in play within the windfield. (This certainly isn't in well-developed rainbands in this region, as the rainbands are mostly all to her south and southeast (See Selected Recon Data Below)
The practical reason for considering Hanna partially still hanging on to subtropical traits is not merely in the interest of being correct, but such a consideration may actually have some implications for forecasting how the cyclone interacts with the environment around her. A subtropical cyclone might have more or less ability to withstand potential disruptions from land interactions, and in some cases, not react as detrimentally to shear, as two potentially relevant examples.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 05:39Z
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the NNW (330°) of center fix
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
Hanna is now hugging the extreme north Haitian coast. Pressures are falling all around this island, and most of the deepest convection has persisted over and to the south and southeast of the island for over twelve hours, while the center of circulation has continued to pull ever more to the south and/or east, over all, over time.
A potential fly in the forecast reasoning is becoming apparent, as the ease with which this cyclone takes on a few significant subtropical characteristics when not burying itself within deep thunderstorms, such that its surface circulation remains very intact and symmetrical if only a bit morphed, and to then jump into wherever the deepest convection has reappeared - and to then transform back into a deepening, warm-cored tropical cyclone, opens up the distinct possibility that its surface circulation may begin to wrap around Haiti.. maybe gels somewhere even south or east of there... into the new location of deepest convection.
This bit of an outlier possibility should be reconciled by this time tomorrow. If Hanna has not by then begun the forecast northwest movement, something is probably amiss in that call.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 07:32 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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Satellite imagery shows Hanna is really very disorganised. Recon puts the centre southeast of the 6AM advisory position, and not too far from the Haiti coast. Given proximity to the rugged terrain, and the less than ideal upper level conditions, Hanna will struggle until the long awaited turn to the north or northwest occurs. However, recon have reported a 993mb pressure, and maximum surface winds from SFMR are near 50 mph. If her current motion to the south / southeast con tinues then she may weaken significantly due to the Hispaniola landmass.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 07:56 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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Another fact against (at least short term) restrengthening: Die strong bands to the S/SE are blocked away by the mountains of Hispaniola and blown away to the east by the strong winds. So they can´t wrap around the center!
| shewtinstar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 11:38 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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I would think that with Hanna sitting and churning up the water for all this time that Ike will go into hypothermia shock when he hits it. I am in Jacksonville, Fl and when we are about to get hit with tropical systems my arthritis goes into high gear. I have no body aches or pains at this time. It may not be a science, but the warning systems never let me down before. I have no concerns, at this time, of a hurricane heading this way.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 11:53 AM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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Track is often easier to figure than timing and intensity.
It's not that I don't think Hanna will bounce up again I just think it may take longer than planned as she has gone further south than planned, stayed there longer and has had a lot of interaction with Haiti. Yes, it will pull together but it will take a little bit longer. That throws off the plan if you ask me.
Ike is hauling, steady like so they have to at some time catch up especially as Hanna has to go North a bit.
Ike is far away still... could do the Carib still if it goes WSW under the high but think it's more a lock on Florida or ... eww the Keys... .
Just a note on the WV the dip is pushing to the SE and not abating so I don't see how Hanna gets up and makes a run for anything just yet.
She never made it west enough to bounce up the west side of the diving trough/ULL feature.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html
Which I still think is the bigger problem here..and will that be gone FOR SURE by the time Ike gets here. I am beginning to wonder..
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 12:21 PM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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The fly in the ointment may be that trough. If my eyes don't deceive me the trough has in fact lifted NE but is leaving a deepening ULL in it wake and that is squarely where Hanna was two days ago. This is uncoupling the LLC from all the convection. Can Hanna survive that? Hanna has had that type of problem all along with an ULL shearing convection last week , then shear from Gustav, and now this. This new feature is more robust than the one she encountered while developing last week and is virtually on top of her. I would not be surprised to see Hanna continue to fade.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 02:41 PM |
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Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
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Yep, I mentioned this in the Hanna lounge from my forecast. Hanna is reforming to her north under the convection flare up. She should be a hurricane again tonight. Watches should be posted by 5pm for the carolinas.