cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Jan 10 2008 05:29 AM
Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

Been watching the pair of ULLs that have been connecting to the surface here for a few days, myself.

Recent scat passes reveal a well-defined inverted V surface wind, with cloud motion suggesting some areas of mesovortices perhaps even down to around 925mb, or so.

Looks a good bit like pre-pre-Olga (pre-95L) tonight. I wouldn't be surprised to see 90L up there within the next day or two. A warm core at the lower levels with a remaining cold core above is fairly standard fare with many subtropical cyclones. There definitely looks to be an increasing number of them over this decade.

SSTs are running 23-25 near the trof axis. With a decent cold core remaining above, this feature could well be on its way to beefing up deeper convection about the developing center of circulation. Wind shear is still high - and is most probably its greatest impediment. However, shear is also coming down some more now. This is a fairly robust situation overall for some kind of subtropical development, nameable, or not...



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