danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Apr 23 2008 08:44 PM
ENSO Update

Ed has posted an update to the ENSO forecast in the Storm Forum.
His current analog year, if I read it right, would be 1985.
He lists 1985 as "quite similar to the current and expected pattern". With 1974,2000,1971,1950, and 1989 following respectively.
(Ed, I hope I got that last sentence right.)
Here are the quick run downs of what happened in 1985. More information is available at the NHC/ TPC website.

Ana-Near Bermuda and Sable Island

Bob- Naples/ Ft Myers to Vero Beach,Fl with landfall near Beaufort,SC

Claudette-Formed near the Mouth of the MS River. Moved east to SE GA Coast, near Cape Hatteras, Bermuda and near the Azores Islands.

Danny-Tropical Wave off of Africa, to near Grand Cayman Islands, to SE GOM, 24hr Intensification to Hurricane, with landfall near Cameron, LA

Elena-Cape Verde wave, 30 knots forward speed to Cuba to SE GOM, toward the NW-then East to the FL Big Bend area, back toward the WNW with landfall near Biloxi,MS. Labor Day weekend Headache of a storm.
At one time or another the Coast from Morgan City,LA to Sarasota,Fl was under a Hurricane Warning. Hence the "Headache Storm".

Fabian-Formed 300 nm South of San Juan,PR. Moved ENE into North Atlantic.

Gloria-Cape Verde Is. to Leeward Is. to the Bahamas to Outer Banks,NC to Western Long Is. NY

Henri-Formed NE of the Bahamas and moved NNE on a track similar to Gloria.

Isabel-Cape Verde wave. From N of Hispaniola to landfall near Savannah,GA.

Juan-Formed in Central GOM in late October.Landfall near Morgan City,LA to Mouth of the MS River to 2nd landfall east of Pensacola,FL

Kate-Mid November storm formed near Virgin Is., to near the SE Bahamas, to near Havana,Cuba, to a landfall near Mexico Beach, FL

Again... this is a quick summation of the NHC tracks from their Archives. At some point during 1985 a Tropical system was threatening the U.S. from the upper Texas Coast to Long Island,N.Y.
Now that's a lot of real estate!!



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