Greetings Everyone,

As we close in on a brand new Hurricane Season, I wanted to say hello and that I hope everyone enjoys participating in the forum that these moderators have established for us. Hopefully, this will be a season where each of us experience no problems from storms. However, I also hope everyone is prepared just in case.

If you have been bouncing around on many of the weather resources the internet has provided us...you may be noticing some active discussion about the GFS model in the 5+ day timeframe regarding some pre-season tropical development. While it is true that the model consistently wants to pop something up in 5+ days in the SW Caribbean, this mentioned weather may or may not evolve and it's not a bad time to keep some other thoughts in check as the season approcahes. 1.) Models provide guidance. 2.) For established tropical weather, anything within 1-5 days has model guidance error and any guidance beyond 5 days is "crystal ball" meteorology with large element of risk and error. 3.) For un-established tropical weather, and/or "phantom systems" (i.e. systems that have not appeared or show no trigger for appearing), the faith in model development should be very low.

As for right now, the area is relatively favorable as small ridge perks along overhead. Yet nothing is present for development. Mean time, westerlies from the Pacific and Easterlies through the Caribbean could pop something up anywhere along the mean region of convergence with time...it just depends on where that convergence is. Not predictable, so who knows, we may be talking about one of three things. 1.) a potential Pacific system 2.) a possible Carrib system 3.) Niether Pacific nor Caribbean storm, yet tropical flooding rains in Cental America if these conditions persist. Until something does pop up...it's just impossible to know where or if this happens right now.

Good luck this season,
Tom