danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun May 25 2008 09:25 PM
Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

Quote:

GFS won't let the idea go......12Z run this morning puts a 997mb low smack dab in the middle of the Gulf on the morning of the 4th. It's persistent, but I am obviously skeptical.




Persistant or consistant. The GFS has now been joined by the CMC (Canadian) and ECMWF (Euro. Med Range Model). Looks like a train of models are onto something... repeat something.

Here is the last paragraph from today's Extended Forecast Discussion from HPC .
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

VALID 12Z WED MAY 28 2008 - 12Z SUN JUN 01 2008

...CMC/ECMWF/GFS ALL CONT THEIR PERSISTENT TREND TOWARDS TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR YUCATAN MID PERIOD AS MODELS BUILD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WITH LOW WIND SHEAR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/WEST CARRIBEAN.
HPC POSITIONING IS A MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN LOCATIONAL AND PRESSURE
AVERAGE.

And From NWS Slidell,LA
Sunday Afternoon AFD~time sensitive
...THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC CONTINUE A PERSISTENT
TREND OF FORECASTING SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE AREA
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF DEVELOPMENT
WOULD OCCUR...OR WHERE ANY SYSTEM WOULD END UP GOING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REFER TO HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE
DETAILS. FOR OUR WEATHER...IT LOOKS IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM TO HOT NEXT WEEKEND. 22