cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed May 28 2008 03:19 AM
Re: Invest 90E

90E is looking better and better overnight tonight. Continued consolidation of convection is coalescing around a markedly improved coc, which is now clearly located IVO 9N 88W, drifting ever so gently E or ENE the past day or so.

If this feature was not still so wrapped up in the ITCZ, one might be tempted to say that it would earn TD sometime this morning. Still might. But, I tend to think that it needs to snap free of the parent trof and spin up a little bit more, first, and this may take a good deal longer than another 6-12 hours.

As of this entry (2AM CDT) NRL has yet to hoist a TCFA. I usually notice that most invests of this kind are given to TCFA's at least a half a day before they earn the right to be numbered depressions. And this is a fairly strait forward, garden variety monsoon trof to tropical cyclogenesis scenario.

What might be interesting to watch is if 90E develops and washes out over central America before having much of a chance to interfere with the prospects of a sister system attempting to get going over out in the Caribbean or BOC. Certainly a few models have even hinted that 90E devolves once over Central America back into a lower pressure center within the much larger, broad area of low pressure, and then reemerges once in the Caribbean or even southwest BOC to attempt to birth an Atlantic tropical cyclone anew.

The mere prospect of a classic tropical cyclone forming just either side of central America before even the official start to the 08 season strikes me as noteworthy.



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