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East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED MAY 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SURFACE LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TRPCL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS ...AT 10N88W 1006 MB GETTING MORE LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WHILE SLOWLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. LITTLE MOVEMENT AT THIS TIME BUT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE AS SECOND LOW PRES OVER SW CARIBBEAN INTERACTS WITH IT. ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION AFFECTS S NICARAGUA AND MOST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST TRPCL AIR MASS INFLUX FROM THE SW. WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AND GUSTY WITHIN 150 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF MEXICO TO PANAMA WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERACTION BETWEEN BOTH LOW PRES CENTERS ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AND THEIR TRACKS...BUT PROXIMITY TO LAND AREAS COULD CURTAIL SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER ONE FOR THE TIME BEING. COMPOUNDING THE SCENARIO IS TRPCL WAVE ALONG 80W DISCUSSED BELOW WHICH IS LIKELY BOOST THE PROBABILITY OF INTENSIFICATION AS MUCH AS TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FORECAST Just what i was thinking and have been posting about... the question to me... i not sure where this second low will form on the caribbean side.... although it will dift and move to the NW... along the central american coast line. I have more tonight when i get a good look at today's data. |