nhc finally called it. the system is unusually far east in the eastpac and at a low latitude... there are actually some 'atlantic' systems in the track record that have their origins in the same general location, i.e. 1949 and 1965, others.
at the rate this thing is improving, and also due to the fact that it is parallelling the coast.. reckon this will be tropical storm alma tomorrow morning. i know, alma. the eastpac wasn't the most advisable place to use that name, as it could conceivably be a storm affecting central america like the one in 1966 did.
my prog on this thing is that it stays fairly weak.. but it won't have to get very strong to cause a lot of problems. i'd expect that the collection of model solutions that slowly veer it around in a counterclockwise way are right, and that it goes in later tomorrow near the confluence of nicaragua/honduras and el salvador as a weak tropical storm, short of any off-the-wall intensification. proximity to land should keep that in check (though it's no guarantee). even if it does... though the deep layer steering from the strengthening ridge to the north should push it westward... it might just keep wobbling around in the locally weak steering flow and move onshore anyway. all of the disturbed weather to the east, and the asymmetry of the wind field ought to aid that.
future track is very iffy. most of the models take it around in a gyre inland over central america. mountainous terrain, so the chances that it will dissipate over the weekend are significant. on the other hand, it might try to redevelop offshore north of honduras. there is a chance it will show up in the atlantic basin and all, but that should probably be brief.
gfs is still trying to develop something in the northwestern caribbean even after it gets rid of our current system. after it progged this guy to show up from two weeks out (albeit on the wrong side of central america), i would put a tad of stock in it. gfs sees the pattern, wants to take something up towards florida during the first week of june. highly fluid situation, too early to tell how it will unfold on our side of the continent.
HF 0316z29may