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Looks like we could indeed easily have ourselves Alma -at any moment- this morning. Here are some of the latest intensity estimates. Given the improved structure.. specifically, the much improved banding, not to mention also the quality and quantity of deep convection, this 48 knot estimate might not be that far off in the future, if not already there. CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E Thursday 29may08 Time: 0706 UTC Latitude: 11.20 Longitude: -86.70 Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 26 [1<--->30] ----------------------------------------------------------------- | Estimated MSLP: 995 hPa | Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 48 kts | Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts ) ----------------------------------------------------------------- Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.76 Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.96 RMW: 111 km RMW Source is: TPC Environmental Pressure: 1008 (TPC) Satellite: NOAA-18 ATCF data for Month: 05 Day: 29 Time (UTC): 0600 And here from the 2AM PDT TD01E Discussion #2 NHC going a little conservative, by their own admission: NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008 200 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE CENTER AND A VIGOROUS BAND WEST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. ASCAT DATA SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR 03Z...AND THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN INNER WIND CORE. BASED MAINLY ON THE ASCAT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 35 KT ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. |