Yeah: There is no question this is moving north and it is probably Cat 1 now based on the visible presentation. Looking at the WV loop trying to discern the synoptic pattern which has been influenced greatly by the rapid development of Alma, I don't see anything that will deviate this to the NW or out to sea. There is a weak ULL to its west which should help push it north into Central America.
The whole moisture envelope in the W. Carribean is continuing to expand and gradually drift north as well. If the GFS is still trying to pull a string in the W.Carribean in 3 days or so that may be in the zone of probable. Other models however don't do anything in the longer run as far as impact on Florida from even an increased precipitation event next week.