I would have of thought this was a weak Tropical storm as of earlier this morning. Thunderstorms near the COC.. pressure of 1003mb and sat fixes and ships reported 44kt winds. So I really dont know why they didnt want to issue TS warnings for belieze and south of cozumel. Maybe they figure since it is making landfall this afternoon...but that's a stupid reason.
With the blocking high over Tx-La over the next 4-5 days...this will meander over southern mexico and the BOC.