| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat May 31 2008 04:23 PM |
Re: alma starts a fight
|
Quote:
Tropical Storm Arthur within the hour.
Not gonna happen, since at 11:30am EDT the NHC declared the LLC to be inland over Belize and the Yucatan.
Note, I did not say that the LLC was actually inland, I just said that the NHC declared that it was.
Quote:
I suppose one other less likely but possible scenario could play out, which would be for a for a storm to form out of a mid level center as discussed above, but to somehow just be far enough to the east to not be caught under a building ridge over northern Mexico, and to be more or less caught in a COL, and more or less sit and spin in the NW Carib.
Looking at the floaters, it appears to me that the LLC is actually due east of Belize City, still over water. Of course, that's based upon my eyeballs which are known to be wrong more often than not
. So the scenario you mention is actually what I was thinking MIGHT be playing out. Clearly, there is DEEP convection forming around this "secondary/developing" low that is offshore - and this new low, if it is one, does not appear to be moving.Bottom line, in my opinion, is the NHC blew this one.