I am about 90% sure that we can write off Arthur for a U.S. landfall at this point. Models are in agreement that the ridge over the GOM and CONUS will hold through at least Wednesday. By that time, Arthur will probably be either dissipating or dissipated over inland Mexico, but as I said in an earlier post, the models show the ridge eroding during the late part of next week which would allow for storms to move northwards. Also, the long-range GFS shows the ridge remaining weak for some time. If anything develops near where Arthur did or in the GOM, a U.S. landfall would be more plausible.

I know I posted this earlier, but just to reiterate what the HPC said:

"WHILE TS ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON WED DAY 4...THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW AN AREA OF
UNSETTLED WX AND A PSBL LOW CENTER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI."

Edit: changed "week" to "weak"