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models not too enthusiastic about coughing up a system near the yucatan anymore, but they are starting to tow a good bit more moisture up with the digging trough in the western conus, with the substantial shortwaves being ejected later this week into the midwest (should be some more severe weather with those). it's a real longshot, but if something managed to reorganize in the big mess that contains the remnants of alma-arthur-91E, it might actually migrate up to the northwest or north. something to look for, with persistent low pressure in the area.. but the gulf is overall quite dry and u/a conditions are lackluster as you go north. byett already mentioned it, out there near 9-10/36-37, way east of where you look for development in early june. just the same, there's a weak but undeniable circulation likely in the h85-70 region with this feature and intermittent convective bursts. really dry out there in general and the u/a conditions get worse the further west you go. just the same... what the heck is that thing doing out there on june 3? two things to glance at, nothing to bite at for now. HF 0341z04june |