Well, not much going on in the tropics right now...

The area in the Gulf of Mexico is a mid level area of vorticity, which is likely a remenant reflection of thunderstorms that moved off the Yucatan Penninsul yesterday afternoon plus the combination of some mid level reflection of the Upper Level Low that is in the Bay of Camp. There isn't any evidence that this will transition into a tropical cyclone as low level cloud motion is moving fairly swiftly as ese'rly and se'rly winds underneath the entire area. There is no support for a low level transition out there under these circumstances. Thunderstorm development remains unimpressive and actually shows continued evidence of winding down. So it doesn't look like the Gulf of Mexico will be an area of development with this feature.

The disturbed area east of the windwards may be something to watch once it reaches the western Caribbean in several days. For now, the area remains unconducive for development and the thunderstorms...as active and "blobular" as they may seem, are well removed to the NE from the most ideal area of turning. The continued shear may keep those storms going, but will proclude development. In the next day or so, the wave will encounter increasingly inhospitable conditions in the Eastern Caribbean Hurricane Boneyard. Especially considering the southerly track this wave will be moving along (i.e. mostly over land)...So in 3 days...we shall see what may be left of it and what the conditions of the western Caribbean may be.