dem05
(User)
Thu Jun 12 2008 10:52 PM
Re: Brewing in the SE

The water temp is at levels that "could" support development in the far western Atlantic under the approriate conditions. However, the upper level winds are quite prohibitive. At this time, there is a large fetch of westerly and west-south westerly (Upper Level) winds moving across northern South America, the Caribbean, and in particular, the northern Caribbean, Greater Antillies and the west Atlantic (east of the Leewards). The true remenant of 91L is currently moving through Venezuala. The thunderstorm activity presently moving NW toward the Leewards is from the wave that was behind it. It will be interesting to see if the wave from behind continues to move NW or if they keep releatively close together during a continued progression that has been generally toward the WNW. If circumstances (Upper level winds) in the western Caribbean were to improve, then there would be a shot a development. Especially if we get more than one wave to pile up under favorable conditions. Otherwise...development looks like a no go...The models depict this and the satellite imagery (Water Vapor) continue to show unfavorable conditions for development.


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