Hey guys, I've been lurking here for a couple years now (I've mostly posted on hardcoreweather and storm2ks boards) but have decided to make an account and provide some of my analysis.

While the wave approaching the eastern Caribbean looked decent going in to the over night hours with the aid of diurnal maximum, convection has really tapered off early this morning. Looking at WV images the majority of the Atlantic is covered with subsidence subduing most convection. Also this wave is beginning to enter a high shear environment. Models do suggest that the strong upper-level winds will being to weaken in the early parts of next week over the western Caribbean but we'll have to wait and see what condition this wave will be left in by then.

Convection can once again be seen forming to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula across most of the GOM as a result of the tropical wave along 95W and 22N and a weak ULL to the northeast.

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Some of this moisture will likely be pulled north by the high pressure system centered over the southeastern U.S. and intermingle with the stalled out cold front that is being aided by the Omega Block (two low pressure systems, one located to the northeast and one to the northwest, with the high pressure system located to the south) bringing more rain to the midwestern U.S. and an area already devastated by torrential flooding and tornadoes.

Nothing of real interest in the immediate future regarding the tropics.

(Off-topic material deleted - see the Forecast Lounge.)