allan
(Weather Master)
Mon Jun 30 2008 02:41 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics

With the MJO pulse in the atlantic, I find the 5 models that are in agreement with our first CV storm reasonable. Shear should relax and it's possible with all the time it has it could become a strong storm. the GFS, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, and EURO show a weak TS in a few days traveling across the Atlantic, the track is uncertain but most models keep it as south as Dean (2007) and Ivan (2004). Also if the High keeps put and stays strong enough, a recurvature is less likely, but not impossible. It's just something to keep an eye on.


Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center