After a typical diurnal drop off in convection during the day today (Thursday), Bertha seems to have developed a fairly tightly compact and robust circulation core this evening. Nocturnal phase of development may be underway. Current satellite takes on the appearance of CDO - though it is less likely that is the case for the time being. TPC seems to agree with intensification overall, per their 11pm advisory/discussion, and the intensity has been raised to 40kts.

Her vitals are unchanged. She will remain in a low shear environment for at least the next 2-3 days, after which some increased shear may or may not significantly impact her. She has only marginal SSTs to work with at 25C, which is a limiting factor on any thinking for rapid intensification. We really like to see a minimum 82F SST and significantly deep thermocline (water temperature decreases with increasing depth) combined with low shear and a noticeable positive anomaly in the outflow (perhaps a channel); none of which is really observable at this time in that part of the Atlantic. This is probably why they are a bit more conservative on development than some of the tropical models are forecasting.