cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Jul 04 2008 03:29 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands

CDO-like feature appears to have been given a little additional boost from some shear, perhaps. Deep convection now, with possibly a pull back to the north of the LLCC, after an initial adjustment to the north, which was only followed by a readjustment to the south after some impressive and fortuitous microwave passes came in.

Doing some quick back of the hand Dvorak sketching, I come up with T3.0 to T3.5 at this time, using a blend of shear, CDO and curved band methods. Covering the bases...

SAB just came back with 3.0 at 0545 UTC. It will be interesting to see what NHC does with the next advisory, but I suspect that whatever the next advisory comes in at might be tempered just a bit as the nocturnal maximum may have run its course.

A few ship reports that came in well outside of the coc and also outside of any deep convection were already running 20-33 knots. Wouldn't it be enlightening to have the benefit of a few center fixes right about now.

I suspect that Bertha might be worthy of at least a 55+/- MPH advisory coming up. Seems entirely plausible. It appears that Bertha is a little stronger, earlier, which adds yet more argument for her spinning off into never never land out at sea. However, its worth noting that recently GFS has been trending a little left.



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