When you overlay the forecast points onto the satellite loop on the link posted in the post before this one, it looks like Bertha is farther north than the original forecast. We could see even more of a northward shift in the next forecast. Still too early to say if the U.S. is under the gun or not, but it seems like it has becoming less and less likely with the recent models and forecasts from the NHC. I did notice however that the 18z run of the BAMS has moved south of the forecast as opposed to its earlier position, which may actually indicate that the model has no idea where it's going. In other words, I think the BAMS has been a little inconsistent.