cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Jul 06 2008 09:56 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands

As noted in the 5PM Discussion, Bertha is intensifying, but currently the MLC and LLC are slightly disjointed. This can be made out in this 1958UTC AMSU Composite
One can also discern the development of an eye, still in its formative stage.

Given that at this time no appreciable increase in wind shear is on the near-term horizon, and only increases of SST are likely in Bertha's path over the next several days, with this incipient eye, improving co-location of both the MLC and LLC, improving outflow, and more, the forecast calling for Bertha to become our first hurricane of the season looks pretty locked - and quite possibly our first major hurricane (which is not yet the official forecast, but which is entirely within the realm of the plausible, given all outlined above).

The stronger she gets, the more likely she is to respond to any upcoming weakness(es) in the ridge.



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