Bertha is fast closing in on T numbers upwards of 5.5 this morning, particularly now that the agencies tasked with utilizing Dvorak are doing so based on far more accurate center fixes. NHC now gives â‰¥ 10% odds of Bertha becoming a major cane during any of Days 2 through 4, and this looks very hard to argue with, if not even conservative. While convection is still not very deep, ever warmer and warmer SSTs are in her future this week. So long as shear does not become a problem, the surrounding dry air should not have much luck impinging on her development. OTOH, should shear do some damage, especially given the dry air and SAL that abounds in the region, we could see a fast unwinding of this current phase.

As for track, NHC seems a bit unsure of their own forecast. To be sure, there is some doubt about whether or not the progged trof will be significant enough to pull Bertha into a full recurve, should the trof really show up, in the first place.