It's been amazing but shear is 20-30 knots to the north which should keep Bertha at category 1 or even a minimal 2 range. Once Bertha moves north of the islands, shear will weaken and Bertha might surprise us. As of now, unless shear dramatically weakens to the northwest, without an anticyclone anymore, Bertha should remain under major hurricane intensity! The latest GFS has two weaker troughs and just stalls Bertha while it slowly drifts northwest. I'd like to see the next few runs of this and other models. Bermuda is most likely to get hit with this but it would not surprise me that it reaches the USA coastline if the troughs are this weak. The first trough was already forecasted to be weak and lift Bertha north but now the GFS is showing the second trough that was supposed to recurve Bertha as a weak front that stalls after crossing the northeast. Interesting stuff. When I say latest GFS, it's the 12z run that is still running.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_l.shtml

I've been and still am looking for a recurvature west of Bermuda but east of the Carolinas. It's still a wait and see situation.