| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jul 07 2008 05:05 PM |
Re: Hurricane Bertha
|
Quote:
What is amazing is how fast Bertha is picking up strength given 24 hours ago, we were looking at a moderate tropical storm and now she's an almost cat 2 hurricane. It will be very interesting to see how much this trough (if any) will play a role with Bertha
My own records show that TCs tend to go above official guidance expectation more than 50% of the time. If NHC pegs a system at 70kts in 3 days for example...the system tends to be a tad stronger by that 3rd day. Virtually every storm in the mega 2005 historic season wound up being more intense than forecast intervals.
But in the case with Bertha, we have to remember that she passed over an interval of 25C SST, which took about 24 hours to do so. This probably stunted her growth. About this time yesterday morning, she began encroaching on 26C-30C type SSTs, and since the deep layer shear profiles have been favorable for strengthening all along, a speedy upswing was plausible.