cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Jul 07 2008 08:30 PM
Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch

Indeed , Bertha is doing very well for herself. ADT is now coming in at 115 knots, raw, as well as 3 hour averaged.

Much has been written here about Bertha's so-called surprisingly rapid intensification. However, this should be considered within the context of of NHC not having had the advantage of recon in and out of there. As early as late yesterday afternoon there were clear indications that Bertha may had already become a hurricane, but owing to the lack of quality center fixes, not to mention the lack of any actual recon flight data at all, Dvorak intensity estimates were not well-pegged to her actual center, and this often tends to give a negative bias to the final T, which, if left uncorrected, then also gets fed into the models, many of which have been way off on her actual intensity, and a bit off on location.

The fact that the CIMSS ADT product is now hitting regular, averaged T numbers of 6.0 or better owes a great deal to the clear eye offering an accurate place to start. Bertha may very well already be a major hurricane, and may have been one for a few hours. Bertha may have been a hurricane for almost 24 hours. Reanalysis will be very key to the record books, for this one.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center