Bertha's rapid intensification in defiance of the official forecast didn't surprise me, because I saw it coming via the satellite presentation. The impact of the shear on the intensity forecast appears to have been significantly overstated in the models and the official forecast. Motion, however, seems to be on track based upon the forecast, which just goes to show that the NHC has a good handle on where hurricanes are going to go in the short term, but still is a long way from being able to forecast intensity. From here on out, I don't expect Bertha has peaked quite yet, and with T-numbers continuing to climb, it would not surprise me to see Bertha with 140+mph winds by morning, before leveling off due to EWRCs.