Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 08 2008 02:12 AM
Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest

Quote:

It appears probable that Bertha has peaked out today at around 105 knots, give or take. This just about pushed the outer limits of Kerry Emanuel's Maximum Potential Intensity index (MPI), being that SSTs did not improve all that much over the course of just the past 18-24 hours.




Excellent point about SSTs, which makes the intensification all the more dramatic. I do believe you're correct in that Bertha has likely peaked at 105kts, but I don't believe I'd call the current presentation asymmetric exactly. The CORE of the hurricane, where the strongest convection is, is certainly tilted on its axis right now, but I've seen that before with hurricanes moving NW. What I'm most interested in, is the fact that Bertha is completely off the forecast track now.



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