AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR.

HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BETWEEN 1900 AND 2300 UTC...BOTH NHC AND
CIMSS OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE. NORMALLY THESE NUMBERS CORRESPOND TO AN INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. DURING THAT TIME THE EYE BECAME VERY DISTINCT AND WAS
SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD TOPS. BERTHA COULD HAVE REACHED A PEAK
INTENSITY A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DURING THAT
PERIOD. SINCE THEN...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE
BIT AND NEW ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED.
(spacing to permit easier reading and bold to highlight the ERC Lois was speaking of.~danielw)
THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS WHEN BERTHA COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY.
THEREAFTER...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING
SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH WEAKENING AS PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
NEVERTHELESS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN...

Forecaster Avilla also added this to the 11PM Discussion. (Not that we needed a reminder~danielw)

BERTHA IS CERTAINLY NOT THE ONLY MAJOR HURRICANE THAT HAS FORMED IN
THE MONTH OF JULY. THE LAST OCCURRENCES WERE HURRICANES DENNIS AND
EMILY IN 2005.