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With almost any other storm i would agree however she is an extremely small, storm with hurricane force winds only 30 miles out from the eye and due to her size alone she is a small, strong pebble in a great big sea of weather and think her future intensity in the short term will be influenced by conditions around that small, seemingly intense core of category 3 winds. I don't think her bad presentation on dvorak is due to eye wall replacement though it may be hard to determine without recon what is really going on from sats as they don't tell the whole story perfectly. Her pressure has gone up steadily however they kept the winds at 120. There is a lot going on there inside and around this storm. Would be fascinating to get a Gulfstream Jet in there and be able to after the fact figure out what happened here and use that data towards better intensity forecasts down the line. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/images/mosaic20080708T100000.gif http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg Reminds me of a very small, intense Hurricane Bret that hit Texas http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/docs/research/hurrhistory/bret/default.html 3rd paragraph down discusses Bret's size: "An interesting meteorological phenomenon associated with Hurricane Bret, was the unusually small diameter of hurricane force winds that extended out from the center of this powerful storm. Even as Bret rapidly intensified to a major hurricane, the hurricane force winds (winds sustained of 75 mph or greater) extended out only 30 to 40 miles in all directions from the center." |