LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Jul 09 2008 03:53 AM
Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest

It's more than a few frames. The movement is steady and what seems to be the center has moved past the forecast points.

I think she might be moving faster now but it's hard to tell especially since there seems to be discrepancy between forecasted movement and what the eye sees. Wish that recon had gone in or was going in... would provide more answers. In the past often recon would find subtle differences between what we thought we saw on sats and what was actually happening in the storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Wanted to add that the models all show a much stronger storm almost from the get go and I keep thinking on a n older comment Ed made re: GFS not handling the storm well the other day. The models all start with a storm much stronger than what we see and I would think that would make them somewhat suspect. I would like to see the models in the morning with current data to see if they truly reflect the storm as she is tonight and not how she was earlier in the day.





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