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Best guesstimate on position at 04Z was 23.0N 56.4W. Thats a motion due west at 12 knots over the past 4 hours and suggests that the ridge to the north has been reinforced.

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With all due respect to the six hour rule of thumb for persistence, still, taking the first and last images of the most recent Dvorak loop and adding some orange reference lines for leading and bottom edges of the storm seems to give a visual nod to that "due west" assessment:



WhitherWeather