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Yes, have seen it. Been there, done that.. A lot of sats, views and model discussion on sites around the web. Despite some temporary changes in path, a few frames that flutter once west or more north Bertha is moving for now NW towards that place she wants to go when the conditions are right. It is a little unsettling for people living in Bermuda to hear that the models don't take her north of 40 and that she will be flirting around with their island for the next few days. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/wv.jpg This gives I believe a better perspective on the situation. As Beven put well in his discussion that is online here and on other sites but not always read as much as the advisories: "IN A MAJOR SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW BERTHA REACHING 40N IN 5 DAYS. BASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... WITH THE TRACK SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME OF THE ERRATIC MOTION FORECASTS IN THE MODELS. THE NEW TRACK IS CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND BERTHA COULD COME EVEN CLOSER TO BERMUDA IF THE JOGS TO THE LEFT IN THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY." Gonna be a long few days. |