no reason to believe any one of the features currently trying to develop and accompany bertha aren't going to give it a try. the eastpac has been coughing up one storm after another since boris... and the shear in much of the atlantic basin has been ridiculously low for much of july (especially in the mdr east of the islands).
case by case..
current active storm bertha is unlikely to stop being bertha anytime soon. every one of the forecast models maintains the storm through d5... aside from other development confusing the evolution further, the current nhc track appears to have enough blanket support to be believable. expect an erratic track that eventually ends in a surge to the northeast... next weekend perhaps. bertha is an already a long-lived system for july. i haven't exhaustively researched what the record for that is, but i'm fairly sure bertha will have it when all is said and done.
94L is likely our next named storm. shouldn't be a lightning fast development, but i'd be surprised if it wasn't td 3 by tuesday. the embryo for this storm is the diffuse area of itcz vorticity near 9/38. an approaching tropical wave with more low-level vorticity should sort of 'sync-up' with it overnight/tomorrow and get the ball rolling. it's going to start out big and broad, so probably won't strengthen quickly or start trucking along very fast until mid-week or so, when it should have a decent degree of itcz separation and a steady easterly current to ride. models imply a threat to the northern leeward islands at the end of next week, and (gfs/ecmwf) eventual recurvature near the bahamas in around ten days. that far out it's hard to know if the models have future amplifications timed or the speed/profile of shortwaves right... not to mention our other area of concern.
that would be the frontal tail and cut-off area of mid-level energy, the frequent source of july activity, in the h50 break near the southeast coast. nhc is already honed in on the small vortmax/slightly sheared thunderstorm area due east of savannah by 150 miles or so. other models have different variations of this evolution... as the weakness troughs out and fills in, in spite of modest shear, the persistent disturbed weather may start to consolidate into yet another system somewhere between florida and the coastal carolina waters. this is in an area of vacillating/weak steering currents, and close enough to bertha to feel the tug maybe... so anything that does go will likely wander about also. this is still fairly low probability of a full development, though, per nhc. expect little movement and possible slow development (but fairly rapid development for anything that gets established).
this year is starting to have the look of a blockbuster to me. sure, it could easily reverse... but those persistent easterly upper anomalies over much of the tropical atlantic are going to start paying huge dividends in august, if they stay around.
HF 1341z13july